Ecological implications of modeled hydrodynamic changes in the upper San Francisco Estuary

The physical and ecological environment of the upper San Francisco Estuary has been profoundly altered since the early 1800s. Recent efforts have utilized maps of the upper estuary’s historical habitat types to infer associated changes in desired ecosystem processes and functions. The work presented in this memo builds on these previous efforts, but utilizes a new tool for evaluating change over time: a 3D hydrodynamic model of the pre-development estuary. This model was constructed by Resource Management Associates (RMA) using a new digital elevation model of the pre-development upper estuary generated by SFEI and UC Davis (UCD) and “natural” boundary flows calculated by the California Department of Water Resources (CDWR).

Once completed and calibrated, the pre-development model was paired with a similar model of the contemporary system in order to analyze hydrodynamic changes in the upper estuary. These analyses are presented in a technical memorandum published by RMA (2015). This memorandum takes these analyses and considers the ecological implications of modeled changes (see the “Results” section). Hydrodynamic analyses include analyzing changes in tidal prism, isohaline positions, low-salinity zone habitat, channel velocity, and source water distribution.

Key findings include:
• (1) a decrease in temporal salinity variability: the variability in X2 position across wet and critically dry years has been reduced, which would be expected to decrease site-scale heterogeneity in tidal marsh plant communities, with potential implications for the diversity and metapopulation dynamics of marsh animals;
• (2) an increase in X2 position due to changes in estuarine geometry: changes in the geometry of the upper estuary have increased the position of X2 by an average of 3.23 km, which means substantially more water is now required to maintain X2 at any one position. Impacts of geometry-driven changes in X2 on wildlife populations are hard to predict given uncertainties in the mechanisms driving correlations between X2 and species abundance, but are potentially sizeable;
• (3) loss of low-velocity refugia in blind channels: in the pre-development simulations, average channel velocities are up to 520% higher in the mainstem channel than at the head of the adjacent blind channel. Since the majority of the upper estuary’s blind channels have been diked and filled, loss of these habitats is expected to have significantly decreased low-velocity refugia for aquatic organisms (such as outmigrating chinook salmon) and has likely decreased the heterogeneity of aquatic habitat with respect to velocity at the landscape-scale;
• (4) changes in source water distribution: preliminary model results suggest San Joaquin source water “signal” has been severely truncated, while Sacramento “signal” has been widely diffused, which could contribute to a decrease in the ability of migratory organisms (especially adult salmon) to navigate the Delta using source-water specific chemical cues (though improved model calibration in the upper reaches of the estuary is needed to draw firm conclusions).