California Water Supply And Demand: Technical Report

The California Water Supply and Demand Model (CWSD) examines the ways in which California’s water supply and demand are likely to be affected by climate change; its purpose is to serve as a base for quantifying these impacts in economic terms. California’s water future is modeled under conditions of no adaptation to climate change, and under several projected water use adaptation scenarios taken from the literature; climate change adaptation scenarios include water used for energy, the urban or residential sector, and agriculture.

The main CWSD compares key categories of water inputs and outputs on a month-by-month basis to capture seasonality in water availability. A supplementary model allows for the main model’s beginning surface reservoir storage to result from water supply and demand interactions over a stylized previous 100 years. Three areas of water use are both especially critical and vulnerable to climatic change: the energy, agriculture, and urban sectors. In the energy module, water demand is a based on different scenarios of coal, nuclear and renewable power use, conservation technology, state population trends, and projected temperatures. In the agriculture module, crop and animal water use by county is a function of projected summer temperatures by county. In the urban module, residential, industrial/commercial, and public water use are based on projected levels of socio-economic growth.