Delta Regional Monitoring Program Nutrients Synthesis: Modeling to Assist Identification of Temporal and Spatial Data Gaps for Nutrient Monitoring

Nutrient loads are an important water quality management issue in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) and there is consensus that the current monitoring activities do not collect all the information needed to answer important management questions. 

The purpose of this report is to use hydrodynamic model outputs to refine recommendations for monitoring nutrients and related conditions in the Delta. The basic premise was that variability in water source and hydraulic residence time can serve to estimate variability in water quality. Therefore, using existing hydrodynamic models that are highly resolved in space and time could be a cost-effective way to get information about likely spatial and temporal variability in nutrients and nutrient-associated parameters. We assume that the Delta can be divided into relatively homogeneous subregions (e.g., such as those proposed in a previous report by Jabusch et al. 2016) and that a representative monitoring location can be chosen in each subregion to track status and trends. We also assume that, within any subregion, areas with long hydraulic residence time and source water mixing may represent potential nutrient transformation hotspots. 

Two types of modeling approaches were applied: 1) volumetric water source analysis to evaluate the mix of source waters within each subregion; and 2) particle tracking simulations. Results from the source water analysis were evaluated to assess heterogeneity of water sources within each of the subregions. Results from the particle tracking analysis were evaluated to identify high-residence-time areas. Finally, we compared analysis results to current monitoring locations to inform potential monitoring gaps or redundancies within each of the subregions.