Development of Stage-Frequency Curves in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta for Climate Change and Sea Level Rise

Future changes in hydrologic patterns and sea level rise will impact water levels in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta), the hub of California’s water supply system and an important ecosystem and agricultural area. An important tool for flood management is stage frequency curves which indicate how often certain water levels (or stage) occur. The Delta poses inherent complexity in the determination of stage-frequency and requires a number of considerations. One needs to account for river flows coming into the Delta, as well as the effect of tides from the Delta’s connection to the ocean through San Francisco Bay. During storms, Delta water levels are also affected by storm surge from the advancing storm fronts coming from the Pacific Ocean. Under climate change, Delta water levels will also be affected by rising sea levels and expected changes in hydrology, such as shifts in timing and amount of precipitation and runoff and changes in how much of our precipitation falls as rain or snow (referred to as climate change hydrology in this paper).

With these taken into consideration, this study lays out the assumption and method used to develop stage-frequency curves in the Delta for three different conditions: current hydrology conditions, current hydrology with sea level rise, and late-century climate change hydrology with sea level rise. In addition, water surface elevation profiles along the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers for various magnitudes of flood events were compared to the top of levee elevations.

Both the stage-frequency curves and the water surface elevation profiles comparisons to top of levee elevations provide valuable information to water resources planners and were applied to inform life and flood risk analysis for the Delta in the Central Valley Flood Protection Plan 2017 Update.