The Delta on Fast Forward – Thinking Beyond the Next Crisis (Summary for Policymakers of the State of Bay Delta Science 2016)

Delta science needs to push beyond its tendency to focus on short-term policy mandates and near-term crises. Taking a longer, 50- to 100-year viewpoint has been part of various planning exercises including Delta Vision. That kind of long-range thinking now needs to be more strongly incorporated into the whole Delta science and management endeavor. An appreciation of the changes that are coming, particularly those associated with climate change, needs to inform all our research and planning.

In the meantime, despite management actions that in some instances appear heroic, native fish continue to decline in the Delta. The food web has changed dramatically, new stressors are added daily to existing ones, and several native species are virtually extinct. While we must continue to try to shore up the delta smelt, for example, it is time for serious debate about more radical alternatives to habitat restoration, including assisted relocation, assisted evolution, even perhaps cryopreservation (freezing of genetic materials). Agency mandates based on the past should not prevent us from taking actions that prepare us for a very different future.

The capacity of the Delta to absorb extremes of all kinds is declining. In the future, water managers will have to adjust to reduced and more variable inflows to the Delta and to less predictable sources of water supply. Sustaining a Delta ecosystem hospitable to native species will be much more difficult. In that case, it may become necessary to refocus on managing for novel plant and animal communities that provide desirable ecosystem services. Delaying action until the next crisis is upon us will greatly increase the risk and costs of failure.