Climate change is increasing the likelihood of extreme autumn wildfire conditions across California

Environmental Research Letters (IOP) | August 20th, 2020

California has experienced devastating autumn wildfires in recent years. These autumn wildfires have coincided with extreme fire weather conditions during periods of stro

California has experienced devastating autumn wildfires in recent years. These autumn wildfires have coincided with extreme fire weather conditions during periods of strong offshore winds coincident with unusually dry vegetation enabled by anomalously warm conditions and late onset of autumn precipitation. In this study, we quantify observed changes in the occurrence and magnitude of meteorological factors that enable extreme autumn wildfires in California, and use climate model simulations to ascertain whether these changes are attributable to human-caused climate change. We show that state-wide increases in autumn temperature (~1 °C) and decreases in autumn precipitation (~30%) over the past four decades have contributed to increases in aggregate fire weather indices (+20%). As a result, the observed frequency of autumn days with extreme (95th percentile) fire weather—which we show are preferentially associated with extreme autumn wildfires—has more than doubled in California since the early 1980s. We further find an increase in the climate model-estimated probability of these extreme autumn conditions since ~1950, including a long-term trend toward increased same-season co-occurrence of extreme fire weather conditions in northern and southern California. Our climate model analyses suggest that continued climate change will further amplify the number of days with extreme fire weather by the end of this century, though a pathway consistent with the UN Paris commitments would substantially curb that increase. Given the acute societal impacts of extreme autumn wildfires in recent years, our findings have critical relevance for ongoing efforts to manage wildfire risks in California and other regions.

Climate change is increasing the risk of extreme autumn wildfire conditions across California

Environmental Research Letters (IOP) | March 26th, 2020

California has experienced devastating autumn wildfires in recent years. These autumn wildfires have coincided with extreme fire weather conditions during periods of str

California has experienced devastating autumn wildfires in recent years. These autumn wildfires have coincided with extreme fire weather conditions during periods of strong offshore winds coincident with unusually dry vegetation enabled by anomalously warm conditions and late onset of autumn precipitation. In this study, we quantify observed changes in the occurrence and magnitude of meteorological factors that enable extreme autumn wildfires in California, and use climate model simulations to ascertain whether these changes are attributable to human-caused climate change. We show that state-wide increases in autumn temperature (~1 °C) and decreases 39 in autumn precipitation (~30%) over the past four decades have contributed to increases in aggregate fire weather indices (+20%). As a result, the observed frequency of autumn days with extreme (95th percentile) fire weather – which we show are preferentially associated with extreme autumn wildfires – has more than doubled in California since the early 1980s. We further find an increase in the climate model-estimated probability of these extreme autumn conditions since ~1950, including a long-term trend toward increased same-season co-occurrence of extreme fire weather conditions in northern and southern California. Our climate model analyses suggest that continued climate change will further amplify the number of days with extreme fire weather by the end of this century, though a pathway consistent with the UN Paris commitments would substantially curb that increase. Given the acute societal impacts of extreme autumn wildfires in recent years, our findings have critical relevance for ongoing efforts to manage wildfire risks in California and other regions.

Climate change is narrowing and shifting prescribed fire windows in western United States

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | October 3rd, 2023

Climate change-resilient snowpack estimation in the Western United States

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | June 18th, 2024

Climate-driven disturbances amplify forest drought sensitivity

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | June 7th, 2024

Climatic Fluctuations, Drought, and Flow in the Colorado River Basin

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | August 16th, 2004

Colorado River Accounting and Water Use Report: Arizona, California, and Nevada

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | May 15th, 2024

In accordance with Article V of the Consolidated Decree of the United States Supreme Court in Arizona v. California et al. 547 U.S. 150 (2006) (Consolidated Decree): �

In accordance with Article V of the Consolidated Decree of the United States Supreme Court in Arizona v. California et al. 547 U.S. 150 (2006) (Consolidated Decree): “The United States shall prepare and maintain, or provide for the preparation and maintenance of, and shall make available, annually and at such shorter intervals as the Secretary of the Interior shall deem necessary or advisable, for inspection by interested persons at all reasonable times and at a reasonable place or places, complete, detailed and accurate records of: (A) Releases of water through regulatory structures controlled by the United States; (B) Diversions of water from the mainstream, return flow of such water to the stream as is available for consumptive use in the United States or in satisfaction of the Mexican Treaty obligation, and consumptive use of such water. These quantities shall be stated separately as to each diverter from the mainstream, each point of diversion, and each of the States of Arizona, California and Nevada; (C) Releases of mainstream water pursuant to orders therefor but not diverted by the party ordering the same, and the quantity of such water delivered to Mexico in satisfaction of the Mexican Treaty or diverted by others in satisfaction of rights decreed herein. These quantities shall be stated separately as to each diverter from the mainstream, each point of diversion, and each of the States of Arizona, California and Nevada; (D) Deliveries to Mexico of water in satisfaction of the obligations of Part III of the Treaty of February 3, 1944, and, separately stated, water passing to Mexico in excess of treaty requirements; (E) Diversions of water from the mainstream of the Gila and San Francisco Rivers and the consumptive use of such water, for the benefit of the Gila National Forest.” This Colorado River Accounting and Water Use Report: Arizona, California, and Nevada presents the records compiled pursuant to the Consolidated Decree for Calendar Year 2023. Copies of this and previous years’ reports may be found on the Bureau of Reclamation’s website.

Cumulative effects of fire and drought in Mediterranean ecosystems

Ecological Society of America (ESA) | August 18th, 2017

The occurrence of multiple disturbances can jointly affect the recovery capacity of ecosystems, potentially leading to changes in vegetation dynamics or loss of resilien

The occurrence of multiple disturbances can jointly affect the recovery capacity of ecosystems, potentially leading to changes in vegetation dynamics or loss of resilience. The effects of interacting disturbances on ecosystems are, however, not well understood. We use a model system based on Mediterranean-type ecosystems (MTEs) to examine how the interplay between vegetation regeneration traits andcompound, stochastic disturbances modulate ecosystem dynamics. We developed a state-and-transition simulation model including two tree species with contrasting regeneration strategies (seeder vs. resprouter) and a shrub-land formation. We aim to assess potential compositional switches under contrasted scenarios of compound fire–drought regimes, and to characterize the cumulative effects of fire–drought(synergism vs. antagonism) relative to the effects of individual disturbance regimes. Our simulation results indicate that interaction between moderate fire and sporadic drought recurrence—as opposed to chronic dryness—can act as a strong mechanism generating highly heterogeneous landscapes in which different regeneration types coexist, as observed in MTEs. Resprouters dominated under individual, moderate disturbance regimes of fire or drought, whereas the interaction of the two disturbances promoted the long-term coexistence of both tree regeneration strategies. However, shrub-land expansion and persistence at the expanse of forests was favored by increases in drought recurrence and associated fire–drought interactions, highlighting the potential for important vegetation changes in MTEs under climate change. Overall, the cumulative effects of fire and drought can lead to distinct landscape configurations under moderate disturbance regimes that are otherwise only attained under high frequency of individual disturbances. At the ecosystem level, however, we suggest that disturbance-induced vegetation dynamics can modify vegetation sensitivity and resilience to further disturbances precluding the prevalence of synergistic effects of the two disturbances.

Debris flow occurrence under changing climate and wildfire regimes: A southern California perspective

Geomorphology (Elsevier) | December 2nd, 2022

In southern California, wildfire incidents are increasing in frequency and magnitude. There is a great deal of research predicting the impact of climate change on large s

In southern California, wildfire incidents are increasing in frequency and magnitude. There is a great deal of research predicting the impact of climate change on large scale fire regimes. These impacts, now the new normal, include increases in future fire incidents and burn severities. Yet predictive studies on how ecosystems respond to changing fire regimes are lacking. Identifying trends in post-fire erosion patterns, such as post-fire debris flows, is critical for increasing human resiliency and adaptation to changing weather patterns and eventual long-term climate change. The relative historical abundance of post-fire debris flows in southern California presents this concern: will worsening wildfire regimes result in more post-fire debris flows? Our research addresses this concern by utilizing a descriptive approach to analyze post-fire debris flows in southern California from 2001 to 2018 to elucidate possible trends. We found that 84 % of debris flows originate from watersheds with soils burnt at moderate soil burn severity. We found that debris flow occurrence is more reliant on the percent coverage of a soil burn severity classification than its areal extent. Further, larger fires also tended to produce more debris flows and most (73 %) debris flow watersheds occurred in predominantly bedrock areas. Our research suggests that the number of post-fire runoff-generated debris flows in the region will increase if fires continue to increase in size, occur on slopes of at least 20°, burn south-facing watersheds with bedrock of igneous or sedimentary origin to at least a moderate severity, and peak rainfall intensity return intervals do not change. These findings highlight the interconnectivity between natural erosive processes, wildfires, humans, and climate change.

Decision on Petition for Rulemaking to Set Permanent Minimum Flows on the Shasta River

California State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) | February 16th, 2024