2022–2026 Science Action Agenda: A Vision for Integrating Delta Science

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | April 5th, 2022

A New Paradigm for Adaptive Management

Ecology and Society (E&S) | July 1st, 2013

Uncertainty is a pervasive feature in natural resource management. Adaptive management, an approach that focuses on identifying critical uncertainties to be reduced via

Uncertainty is a pervasive feature in natural resource management. Adaptive management, an approach that focuses on identifying critical uncertainties to be reduced via diagnostic management experiments, is one favored approach for tackling this reality. While adaptive management is identified as a key method in the environmental management toolbox, there remains a lack of clarity over when its use is appropriate or feasible. Its implementation is often viewed as suitable only in a limited set of circumstances. Here we restructure some of the ideas supporting this view, and show why much of the pessimism around AM may be unwarranted. We present a new framework for deciding when AM is appropriate, feasible, and subsequently successful. We thus present a new paradigm for adaptive management that shows that there are no categorical limitations to its appropriate use, the boundaries of application being defined by problem conception and the resources available to managers. In doing so we also separate adaptive management as a management tool, from the burden of failures that result from the complex policy, social, and institutional environment within which management occurs.

A Review of the Use of Science and Adaptive Management in California's Draft Bay Delta Conservation Plan

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | January 1st, 2011

The San Francisco Bay Delta Estuary is a large, complex estuarine ecosystem in California. It has been substantially altered by dikes, levees, channelization, pumps,

The San Francisco Bay Delta Estuary is a large, complex estuarine ecosystem in California. It has been substantially altered by dikes, levees, channelization, pumps, human development, introduced species, dams on its tributary streams and contaminants. The Delta supplies water from the state's wetter northern regions to the drier southern regions and also serves as habitat for many species, some of which are threatened and endangered. The restoration of water exacerbated tensions over water allocation in recent years, and have led to various attempts to develop comprehensive plans to provide reliable water supplies and to protect the ecosystem. One of these plans is the Bay Delta Conservation Plan (BDCP). The report, A Review of the Use of Science and Adaptive Management in California's Draft Bay Delta Conservation Plan, determines that the plan is incomplete in a number of important areas and takes this opportunity to identify key scientific and structural gaps that, if addressed, could lead to a more successful and comprehensive final BDCP. The plan is missing the type of structure usually associated with current planning methods in which the goals and objectives are specified, alternative measure for achieving the objectives are introduced and analyzed, and a course of action in identified based on analytical optimization of economic, social, and environmental factors. Yet the panel underscores the importance of a credible and a robust BDCP in addressing the various water management problems that beset the Delta. A stronger, more complete, and more scientifically credible BDCP that effectively integrates and utilizes science could indeed pave the way toward the next generation of solutions to California's chronic water problems.

A Review of the Use of Science and Adaptive Management in California’s Draft Bay Delta Conservation Plan

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | May 5th, 2011

California’s draft Bay Delta Conservation Plan—a draft plan to conserve habitat for endangered and threatened species, while continuing to divert water to agriculture

California’s draft Bay Delta Conservation Plan—a draft plan to conserve habitat for endangered and threatened species, while continuing to divert water to agriculture and domestic water users in central and southern California—is incomplete and contains critical scientific gaps. The Bay Delta is a large, complex ecosystem that supplies water from the state’s wetter northern regions to the drier southern regions, and also serves as habitat for many species. The Bay Delta Conservation Plan describes a proposal to construct a tunnel or canal to divert water from the northern Delta to the south, thus reducing the need to convey water through the Delta. This report reviews the use of science and adaptive management in the draft Bay Delta Conservation Plan and identifies opportunities to develop a more successful plan.

A Scientific Assessment of Alternatives for Reducing Water Management Effects on Threatened and Endangered Fishes in California's Bay Delta (2010)

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | March 19th, 2010

The California Bay-Delta region receives fresh water from the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers and their tributaries, and some of that water is diverted for agricult

The California Bay-Delta region receives fresh water from the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers and their tributaries, and some of that water is diverted for agriculture and southern California metropolitan areas. However, the region's growing population and engineered water-control systems have substantially altered the delta ecosystem and have changed the composition of fish species; while some native species have declined, some introduced species have increased. This report provides a scientific evaluation of two "biological opinions" issued by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the National Marine Fisheries Service in 2008 and 2009, respectively, that require actions to reduce adverse effects of water diversions on delta smelt, Chinook salmon, Central Valley steelhead, and green sturgeon, such as restricting water diversions during certain periods. The report concludes that most of the actions are scientifically justified, but many need clarification concerning details. For example, the Fish and Wildlife Service and the National Marine Fisheries Service actions to reduce risks to delta smelt and juvenile salmon and steelhead by limiting how much water is pumped from the delta in winter have a sound conceptual basis. However, the data do not permit a confident identification of when to limit pumping or the benefits fish receive. Thus careful monitoring, adaptive management, and additional analyses are needed. The report further concludes that our understanding of the risks to the fishes and the benefits likely to accrue from the actions requires an integrated, quantitative analytical framework that ties the various actions together within the species, between smelt and salmonids and sturgeon, and across the watershed. The lack of such an integrated analytic framework hampers both the agencies' and the committee's ability to thoroughly evaluate the effects of the RPAs on the fishes, on water quality and quantity in the delta, and on water operations. Key Messages A proposed U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service action to create or restore 8,000 acres of intertidal and subtidal habitat in the delta is weakly justified, because the relationship between tidal habitats and food availability for smelt is poorly understood. A proposed U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service action to manage the contour line of 2 parts per thousand salinity, called X2, is beneficial to smelt needs further clarification. A proposed U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service action to protect delta smelt by limiting how much water is pumped from the delta to reduce reverse flows in the Old and Middle rivers, two branches of the San Joaquin River is scientifically justified; however, the data do not permit confident identification of when to limit reverse flows or of the benefits fish receive, so careful monitoring, adaptive management, and additional analyses is needed. Adverse effects of all other stressors on the listed fish -- such as contaminants in the delta and structures on rivers that block fishes from access to their spawning habitat -- are potentially large. Regarding a Nation Marine Fisheries Service biological opinion, which applies to the Chinook salmon, steelhead, and green sturgeon in the delta and farther upstream, the committee concluded that on balance the actions are scientifically justified; however, specific environmental triggers, thresholds, and flows should receive additional evaluation that is integrated with the analyses of similar actions for delta smelt. Reversing or even slowing the declines of the listed fish species cannot be accomplished immediately. The effects of an increasing population and the operation of the engineered water-control system have substantially altered the delta ecosystem, including its fish species.

Adaptability and adaptations of California’s water supply system to dry climate warming

Climactic Change (Springer) | November 27th, 2007

Economically optimal operational changes and adaptations for California’s water supply system are examined for a dry form of climate warming (GFDL CM2.1 A2) with year 2

Economically optimal operational changes and adaptations for California’s water supply system are examined for a dry form of climate warming (GFDL CM2.1 A2) with year 2050 water demands and land use. Economically adaptive water management for this climate scenario is compared to a similar scenario with the historical climate. The effects of population growth and land use alone are developed for comparison. Compared with the historic hydrology, optimized operations for the dry climate warming scenario raise water scarcity and total operation costs by $490 million/year with year 2050 demands. Actual costs might be somewhat higher where non-economic objectives prevail in water management. The paper examines the economical mix of adaptation, technologies, policies, and operational changes available to keep water supply impacts to such modest levels. Results from this screening model suggest promising alternatives and likely responses and impacts. Optimized operations of ground and surface water storage change significantly with climate. Dry-warm climate change increases the seasonal storage range of surface reservoirs and aquifers. Surface reservoir peak storage usually occurs about a month earlier under dry-warm climate change.

Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management

John Wiley and Sons (Wiley) | July 1st, 1978

This book is a report on our efforts to develop an adaptive approach to environmental impact assessment and management. It is written for policy makers and managers who

This book is a report on our efforts to develop an adaptive approach to environmental impact assessment and management. It is written for policy makers and managers who are dissatisfied with the traditional procedures and principles and who seek some effective and realistic alternatives. The study was initiated by a workshop convened in early 1974 by SCOPE (Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment). The workshop wasn't attended by individuals with an often bewildering range of experience, concerns, and styles - precisely those ingredients that are so useful at the very start of an analysis for defining the full range of issues and possibilities. Three particularly relevant questions emerged (Munn, 1975): 1. What, if anything, does our understanding of the nature and behavior of ecological systems have to say about the issues, limitations, and potential of environmental assessment? 2. What can be done to bridge the abyss presently separating technical impact assessment studies from actual environmental planning and decision making? 3. To what extent, and under what circumstances, do present methods provide useful predictions of impacts?

Adaptive Management - Applications Guide

U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) | January 1st, 2012

The Department of the Interior (DOI) Adaptive Management Working Group sponsored the development of this applications guide to provide thorough examples for a better unde

The Department of the Interior (DOI) Adaptive Management Working Group sponsored the development of this applications guide to provide thorough examples for a better understanding of how adaptive management can be implemented in the field. The applications guide builds on the framework for adaptive management presented in the DOI Adaptive Management Technical Guide, and illustrates the elements of adaptive management with a large number of natural resource examples. The Adaptive Management Working Group includes representatives from most DOI bureaus and offices. Writing teams of resource managers, technical experts, and other specialists worked with the group to identify and describe applications of adaptive management in four thematic areas: climate change, water resources, energy resources, and the interface of human and natural systems. These themes were chosen to illustrate the elements and processes of adaptive management because of their importance to DOI management responsibilities, the current interest in the thematic areas in using adaptive management, and the broad potential in each thematic area for learning-based management. In writing this guide, we attempted to provide enough background about the elements of adaptive management implementation, and the challenges in implementing it, to give the reader a context for the resource examples. We also sought to provide enough detail in the examples to illustrate clearly the elements of adaptive management. Thus, the guide includes summaries of the principles and issues relevant to adaptive management, followed by descriptions of potential and actual applications in each of the four thematic areas. The intention was to provide enough detail about the actual process of adaptive management to be informative, while limiting the scope, complexity, and size of the document.

Adaptive Management - Technical Guide

U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) | January 1st, 2009

The Department of the Interior (DOI) Adaptive Management Working Group (AMWG) sponsored the development of this technical guide to clearly and consistently define adaptiv

The Department of the Interior (DOI) Adaptive Management Working Group (AMWG) sponsored the development of this technical guide to clearly and consistently define adaptive management and describe conditions for its implementation. AMWG membership includes representatives from across DOI’s bureaus and offices. A writing team of resource managers, technical experts, and other specialists worked with AMWG to address four basic questions concerning adaptive management: (1) What is adaptive management? (2) When should it be used? (3) How should it be implemented? (4) How can its success be recognized and measured? These questions were used to organize both the writing effort and the structure of the guide itself, with individual chapters addressing each of the questions. The authors sought to describe adaptive management at an appropriate level of technical detail, while remaining focused on its definition, operational components, and conditions in which it applies. A key challenge was to provide sufficient detail for clarification, while limiting the length and complexity of the document.

Adaptive Management and Science for the Delta Ecosystem

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | October 1st, 2013

Using science to adaptively guide management for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta is widely talked about as good public policy.  Almost every agency, stakeholder, and pl

Using science to adaptively guide management for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta is widely talked about as good public policy.  Almost every agency, stakeholder, and planning process professes support and has its own adaptive management and science efforts.  But highly fragmented adaptive management and science cannot solve such urgent complex problems. California’s 2009 Delta Reform Act recognized that meeting the co-equal goals of a sustainable ecosystem and water supply reliability in the Delta required major changes in governance, planning, and management. Such changes also require major changes in how science is organized and employed in management. Here is a straw proposal for integrating the many parochial science and adaptive management programs for the Delta.