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Changing impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level rise

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 8th, 2021

Summary

The amplification of coastal hazards such as distant-source tsunamis under future relative sea-level rise (RSLR) is poorly constrained. In southern California, the Alaska

The amplification of coastal hazards such as distant-source tsunamis under future relative sea-level rise (RSLR) is poorly constrained. In southern California, the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone has been identified as an earthquake source region of particular concern for a worst-case scenario distant-source tsunami. Here, we explore how RSLR over the next century will influence future maximum nearshore tsunami heights (MNTH) at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Earthquake and tsunami modeling combined with local probabilistic RSLR projections show the increased potential for more frequent, relatively low magnitude earthquakes to produce distant-source tsunamis that exceed historically observed MNTH. By 2100, under RSLR projections for a high-emissions representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5), the earthquake magnitude required to produce >1 m MNTH falls from ~Mw9.1 (required today) to Mw8.0, a magnitude that is ~6.7 times more frequent along the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone.

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Community Exposure to Tsunami Hazards in California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | February 20th, 2013

Summary

Evidence of past events and modeling of potential events suggest that tsunamis are significant threats to low-lying communities on the California coast. To reduce potenti

Evidence of past events and modeling of potential events suggest that tsunamis are significant threats to low-lying communities on the California coast. To reduce potential impacts of future tsunamis, officials need to understand how communities are vulnerable to tsunamis and where targeted outreach, preparedness, and mitigation efforts may be warranted. Although a maximum tsunami-inundation zone based on multiple sources has been developed for the California coast, the populations and businesses in this zone have not been documented in a comprehensive way. To support tsunami preparedness and risk-reduction planning in California, this study documents the variations among coastal communities in the amounts, types, and percentages of developed land, human populations, and businesses in the maximum tsunami-inundation zone. The tsunami-inundation zone includes land in 94 incorporated cities, 83 unincorporated communities, and 20 counties on the California coast. According to 2010 U.S. Census Bureau data, this tsunami-inundation zone contains 267,347 residents (1 percent of the 20-county resident population), of which 13 percent identify themselves as Hispanic or Latino, 14 percent identify themselves as Asian, 16 percent are more than 65 years in age, 12 percent live in unincorporated areas, and 51 percent of the households are renter occupied. Demographic attributes related to age, race, ethnicity, and household status of residents in tsunami-prone areas demonstrate substantial range among communities that exceed these regional averages. The tsunami-inundation zone in several communities also has high numbers of residents in institutionalized and noninstitutionalized group quarters (for example, correctional facilities and military housing, respectively). Communities with relatively high values in the various demographic categories are identified throughout the report. The tsunami-inundation zone contains significant nonresidential populations based on 2011 economic data from Infogroup (2011), including 168,565 employees (2 percent of the 20-county labor force) at 15,335 businesses that generate approximately $30 billion in annual sales. Although the regional percentage of at-risk employees is low, certain communities, such as Belvedere, Alameda, and Crescent City, have high percentages of their local workforce in the tsunami-inundation zone. Employees in the tsunami-inundation zone are primarily in businesses associated with tourism (for example, accommodations, food services, and retail trade) and shipping (for example, transportation and warehousing, manufacturing, and wholesale trade), although the dominance of these sectors varies substantially among the 94 cities. Although the number of occupants is not known for each site, the tsunami-inundation zone contains numerous dependent-population facilities, such as schools and child daycare centers, which may have individuals with limited mobility. The tsunami-inundation zone includes a substantial number of facilities that provide community services, such as banks, religious organizations, and grocery stores, where local residents may be unaware of evacuation procedures if previous awareness efforts focused on home preparedness. There are also numerous recreational areas in the tsunami-inundation zone, such as amusement parks, marinas, city and county beaches, and State and national parks, which attract visitors who may not be aware of tsunami hazards or evacuation procedures. During peak summer months, estimated daily attendance at city and county beaches can be approximately six times larger than the total number of residents in the tsunami-inundation zone. Community exposure to tsunamis in California varies considerably—some communities may experience great losses that reflect only a small part of their community and others may experience relatively small losses that devastate them. Among 94 incorporated communities and the remaining unincorporated areas of the 20 coastal counties, the communities of Alameda, Oakland, Long Beach, Los Angeles, Huntington Beach, and San Diego have the highest number of people and businesses in the tsunami-inundation zone. The communities of Belvedere, Alameda, Crescent City, Emeryville, Seal Beach, and Sausalito have the highest percentages of people and businesses in this zone. On the basis of a composite index, the cities of Alameda, Belvedere, Crescent City, Emeryville, Oakland, and Long Beach have the highest combinations of the number and percentage of people and businesses in tsunami-prone areas.

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Factors and Processes Affecting Delta Levee System Vulnerability

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | December 1st, 2016

Summary

The authors appraised factors and processes related to human activities and high water, subsidence, and seismicity. Farming and drainage of peat soils over time has cause

The authors appraised factors and processes related to human activities and high water, subsidence, and seismicity. Farming and drainage of peat soils over time has caused a gradual sinking which contributed to internal levee failures. Although these subsidence rates have decreased with time, they still contribute to levee instability. Additional data is needed to assess spatial and temporal effects of subsidence caused by peat thinning and deformation. Since the mid-1970s large-scale, State investments in levee upgrades have increased conformance, however accounts continue to conflict on how these investments correspond to the numbers of failures. Both modeling and history suggest that the projected increases of high-flow frequency associated with climate change will increase levee-failures rates. Quantification of this increased threat requires further research. A reappraisal of seismic threats resulted in updated ground motion estimates for multiple faults and earthquake occurrence frequencies. The immediate seismic threat, liquefaction, is the sudden loss of strength due to an increase in the pressure of the pore fluid and corresponding loss of contact forces. However, levees damaged during an earthquake that do not immediately fail, may eventually breach. Consequences for future levee failure are estimated to cost up to billions of dollars. The analysis of future risks will benefit from more detailed descriptions of levee strength and upgrades, consideration of subsidence, climate change, and earthquake threats. Ecosystem benefits of levee habitats in this highly altered system are thin. Better recognition and coordination is needed among the creation of high value habitats, levee needs, costs, benefits of levee improvements, and breaches.

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Irregular Focal Mechanisms Observed at Salton Sea Geothermal Field: Possible Influences of Anthropogenic Stress Perturbations

Stanford University | February 12th, 2018

Summary

At the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF), strain accumulation is released through seismic slip and aseismic deformation. Earthquake activity at the SSGF often oc

At the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF), strain accumulation is released through seismic slip and aseismic deformation. Earthquake activity at the SSGF often occurs in swarm-like clusters, some with clear migration patterns. We have identified an earthquake sequence composed entirely of focal mechanisms representing an ambiguous style of faulting, where strikes are similar but deformation occurs due to steeply-dipping normal faults with varied stress states. In order to more accurately determine the style of faulting for these events, we revisit the original waveforms and refine estimates of P and S wave arrival times and displacement amplitudes. We calculate the acceptable focal plane solutions using P-wave polarities and S/P amplitude ratios, and determine the preferred fault plane. Without constraints on local variations in stress, found by inverting the full earthquake catalog, it is difficult to explain the occurrence of such events using standard fault-mechanics and friction. Comparing these variations with the expected poroelastic effects from local production and injection of geothermal fluids suggests that anthropogenic activity could affect the style of faulting.

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Resilience by Design

City of Los Angeles | January 7th, 2016

Summary

Resilience by Design presents the recommendations of the Mayoral Seismic Safety Task Force, the members of which are listed in the Acknowledgements Section of this docume

Resilience by Design presents the recommendations of the Mayoral Seismic Safety Task Force, the members of which are listed in the Acknowledgements Section of this document. These recommendations address the city’s greatest vulnerabilities from earthquakes with significant and attainable solutions to: • Protect the lives of our residents • Improve the capacity of the City to respond to earthquakes • Prepare the City to recover quickly from earthquakes • Protect the economy of the City and all of Southern California. The Mayoral Seismic Task Force evaluated four areas of seismic vulnerability, namely: • Pre-1980 “ non-ductile reinforced concrete” buildings • Pre-1980 “soft-first- story ” buildings • Water system infrastructure ( including impact on firefighting capability) • Telecommunications infrastructure

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Seasonal non-tectonic loading inferred from GPS as a potential trigger for the M6.0 South Napa Earthquake

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | May 8th, 2018

Summary

It is well established that earthquakes occur on fault systems where stress has accumulated over periods of centuries to millennia. The specific factors that trigger indi

It is well established that earthquakes occur on fault systems where stress has accumulated over periods of centuries to millennia. The specific factors that trigger individual earthquakes are typically unknown, but researchers have recently found links between seasonal variations in earthquake occurrence and local changes in water storage and temperature. Using data from high-precision continuous GPS stations in Northern California, we observed a small 3 mm horizontal expansion of the Earth's crust prior to and in the vicinity of the August 2014 M6.0 South Napa earthquake. By analyzing the previous eight years of GPS data, we additionally found that a similar pattern of crustal motion repeats every summer. We have determined that this crustal expansion releases pressure on nearby faults, including those in the South Napa fault system, making them more likely to slip during the summer months. Large seasonal variability in the amount of groundwater in the Napa Valley and Sonoma subbasins may contribute to the observed changes.

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State Water Project Seismic Loading Criteria Report

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | September 19th, 2012

Summary

Seismic loading criteria are developed for various types of structures in the State Water Project (SWP) to use in future designs and evaluations. The SWP system supplies

Seismic loading criteria are developed for various types of structures in the State Water Project (SWP) to use in future designs and evaluations. The SWP system supplies water for almost two third of Californians and about 750,000 acres of irrigated farmlands. It is critical for the California economy. Seismic risk is considered one of the greatest contributors of all potential risk categories for the SWP. California is considered one of most seismically vulnerable areas in the world and most of the SWP facilities are located in central and southern California, which are seismically active areas. The purpose of developing seismic loading criteria was to have an economically feasible SWP system that would provide adequate protection against the loss of life, property damage, and interruption of water delivery during and immediately after a seismic event. Most of the existing SWP facilities have not been evaluated since they were built in the 1960s. The knowledge of ground motion predictions and seismic analytical methodologies has significantly progressed since the1960s. As part of the development of the seismic loading criteria, current design standards used by Department of Water Resources (DWR), other similar agencies, and regulatory/code entities were gathered and utilized to select appropriate minimum loading levels for different types of SWP facilities. In addition, the process of criteria selection included consideration of the consequences of failure such as loss of life, property damage, and interruption of water delivery. The consequence of interruption of water delivery was somewhat difficult to quantify because DWR delivers water to the water contractors and they either store it in their storage facilities or distribute to the local agencies. The recommended loading criteria include consideration of consequences of failures in the selection process. The Division of Engineering (DOE) in DWR should use the seismic loading criteria recommended in this report for the design and evaluation of both new and existing SWP facilities. Seismic loading criteria is provided for most of the structures associated with the SWP—reservoirs , dams, canals, pipelines, tunnels, check structures, pumping and power plants, buildings, bridges and utility overcrossings of the aqueduct. The seismic loading criteria should be used for these structures and associated appurtenant facilities in the future. A project engineer can use a larger loading criteria than what is recommended in this report based on project specific factors such as: 1) the consequences of interruption of water delivery, 2) the impact on existing habitats and the environment, 3) the operational aspects of the facility in relation to water delivery, 4) the repair cost and time to return the system back to operational status, and 5) the availability of an emergency back-up system to temporarily make the facility operational until all the repairs are completed. The criteria recommended in this report are considered current; however, these seismic loading criteria should be reviewed and updated every five years to make appropriate changes based on future operational requirements and on changes in state-of-practice. This is the first time DWR has developed loading criteria for the entire SWP facility and many of these facilities have not been evaluated to determine how vulnerable the system would be based on any seismic criteria. Therefore, these criteria are considered preliminary until the recommendations can be confirmed to be reasonable for the SWP facilities.

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Stormquakes

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | October 14th, 2019

Summary

Seismic signals from ocean-solid Earth interactions are ubiquitously recorded on our planet. However, these wavefields are typically incoherent in the time domain limiti

Seismic signals from ocean-solid Earth interactions are ubiquitously recorded on our planet. However, these wavefields are typically incoherent in the time domain limiting their utilization for understanding ocean dynamics or solid Earth properties. In contrast, we find that during large storms such as hurricanes and Nor’easters the interaction of long-period ocean waves with shallow seafloor features located near the edge of continental shelves, known as ocean banks, excites coherent transcontinental Rayleigh wave packets in the 20 to 50 s period band. These “stormquakes” migrate coincident with the storms, but are effectively spatiotemporally focused seismic point sources with equivalent earthquake magnitudes that can be greater than 3.5. Stormquakes thus provide new coherent sources to investigate Earth structure in locations that typically lack both seismic instrumentation and earthquakes. Moreover, they provide a new geophysical observable with high spatial and temporal resolution with which to investigate ocean wave dynamics during large storms.

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Subsurface Geometry of the San Andreas Fault in Southern California: Results from the Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP) and Strong Ground Motion Expectations

Seismological Society of America (SSA) | August 1st, 2017

Summary

The San Andreas fault (SAF) is one of the most studied strike‐slip faults in the world; yet its subsurface geometry is still uncertain in most locations. The Salton S

The San Andreas fault (SAF) is one of the most studied strike‐slip faults in the world; yet its subsurface geometry is still uncertain in most locations. The Salton Seismic Imaging Project (SSIP) was undertaken to image the structure surrounding the SAF and also its subsurface geometry. We present SSIP studies at two locations in the Coachella Valley of the northern Salton trough. On our line 4, a fault‐crossing profile just north of the Salton Sea, sedimentary basin depth reaches 4 km southwest of the SAF. On our line 6, a fault‐crossing profile at the north end of the Coachella Valley, sedimentary basin depth is ∼2–3km∼2–3 km and centered on the central, most active trace of the SAF. Subsurface geometry of the SAF and nearby faults along these two lines is determined using a new method of seismic‐reflection imaging, combined with potential‐field studies and earthquakes. Below a 6–9 km depth range, the SAF dips ∼50°–60°∼50°–60° NE, and above this depth range it dips more steeply. Nearby faults are also imaged in the upper 10 km, many of which dip steeply and project to mapped surface fault traces. These secondary faults may join the SAF at depths below about 10 km to form a flower‐like structure. In Appendix D, we show that rupture on a northeast‐dipping SAF, using a single plane that approximates the two dips seen in our study, produces shaking that differs from shaking calculated for the Great California ShakeOut, for which the southern SAF was modeled as vertical in most places: shorter‐period (⁠T<1sT<1 s⁠) shaking is increased locally by up to a factor of 2 on the hanging wall and is decreased locally by up to a factor of 2 on the footwall, compared to shaking calculated for a vertical fault.

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Toward a Resilient Global Society: Air, Sea Level, Earthquakes, and Weather

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | April 30th, 2019

Summary

Society's progress along the four corners of prepare, adsorb, respond and adapt resilience square is uneven, in spite of our understanding of the foundational science and

Society's progress along the four corners of prepare, adsorb, respond and adapt resilience square is uneven, in spite of our understanding of the foundational science and a growing sense that urgent action is needed. The resilience vignettes describe the meaning and impact of current and near‐term change in four major domains: human health impacts from air pollution, coastal inundation from sea‐level rise, damaging earthquakes in populated areas, and impacts from extreme precipitation. Given our understanding of the scientific principles, societal action, from preparation to adaption, will be critical in minimizing the negative impacts of today's changes. The unprecedented rates of change in today's Earth system argue for urgent action in support of a resilient global society.

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Malibu Valley 4-022
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Ogilby Valley 7-035
Ojai Valley 4-002
Orocopia Valley - 7-031
Owens Valley - Fish Slough 6-012.02
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Owl Lake Valley 6-088
Pahrump Valley 6-028
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Palo Verde Valley 7-038
Pamo Valley 9-024
Panamint Valley 6-058
Peach Tree Valley 3-032
Petaluma Valley 2-001
Pilot Knob Valley 6-051
Pinto Valley 7-006
Pipes Canyon Fault Valley 7-049
Pittsburgh Plain 2-004
Piute Valley 7-045
Pleasant Valley 4-006
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Poway Valley 9-013
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Red Pass Valley 6-024
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Redding Area - Millville 5-006.05
Redding Area - South Battle Creek 5-006.06
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Riggs Valley 6-023
Russell Valley 4-020
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Sacramento Valley - Los Molinos 5-021.56
Sacramento Valley - North American (5-021.64)
Sacramento Valley - North Yuba 5-021.60
Sacramento Valley - Red Bluff 5-021.50
Sacramento Valley - Solano 5-021.66
Sacramento Valley - South American 5-021.65
Sacramento Valley - South Yuba 5-021.61
Sacramento Valley - Sutter 5-021.62
Sacramento Valley - Vina 5-021.57
Sacramento Valley - Wyandotte Creek 5-021.69
Sacramento Valley - Yolo 5021.67
Salinas Valley - 180/400 Foot Aquifer 3-004.01
Salinas Valley - Atascadero Area 3-004.11
Salinas Valley - East Side Aquifer 3-004.02
Salinas Valley - Forebay Aquifer 3-004.04
Salinas Valley - Langley Area 3-004.09
Salinas Valley - Monterey 3-004.10
Salinas Valley - Paso Robles Area 3-004.06
Salinas Valley - Upper Valley Aquifer 3-004.05
Saline Valley 6-017
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San Antonio Creek Valley 3-014
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San Joaquin Valley - Delta-Mendota 5-022.07
San Joaquin Valley - East Contra Costa 5-022.19
San Joaquin Valley - Eastern San Joaquin 5-022.01
San Joaquin Valley - Kaweah 5-022.11
San Joaquin Valley - Kern 5-022.14
San Joaquin Valley - Kings 5-022.08
San Joaquin Valley - Madera 5-022.06
San Joaquin Valley - Merced 5-022.04
San Joaquin Valley - Modesto 5-022.02
San Joaquin Valley - Pleasant Valley 5-022.10
San Joaquin Valley - Tracy 5-022.15
San Joaquin Valley - Tulare Lake 5-022.12
San Joaquin Valley - Tule 5-022.13
San Joaquin Valley - Turlock 5-022.03
San Joaquin Valley - Westside 5-022.09
San Joaquin Valley - White Wolf 5-022.18
San Juan Valley 9-001
San Luis Obispo Valley 3-009
San Luis Rey Valley - Lower San Luis Rey Valley 9-007.02
San Luis Rey Valley - Upper San Luis Rey Valley 9-007.01
San Marcos Area 9-032
San Mateo Valley 9-002
San Onofre Valley 9-003
San Pasqual Valley 9-010
Santa Barbara 3-017
Santa Clara River Valley - Fillmore 4-004.05
Santa Clara River Valley - Mound 4-004.03
Santa Clara River Valley - Oxnard 4-004.02
Santa Clara River Valley - Piru 4-004.06
Santa Clara River Valley - Santa Clara River Valley East 4-004.07
Santa Clara River Valley - Santa Paula 4-004.04
Santa Clara Valley - East Bay Plain 2-009.04
Santa Clara Valley - Niles Cone 2-009.01
Santa Clara Valley - San Mateo Plain 2-009.03
Santa Clara Valley - Santa Clara 2-009.02
Santa Cruz Mid-County 3-001
Santa Margarita 3-027
Santa Maria River Valley - Arroyo Grande 3-012.02
Santa Maria River Valley - Santa Maria 3-012.01
Santa Maria River Valley 3-012.02
Santa Maria Valley 9-011
Santa Rosa Valley - Santa Rosa Plain 1-055.01
Santa Ynez River Valley 3-015
Scott River Valley 1-005
Searles Valley 6-052
Seven Oaks Valley 8-008
Shasta Valley 1-004
Sierra Valley 5-012.01
Silver Lake Valley 6-034
Simi Valley 4-009
Soda Lake Valley 6-033
South San Diego River Valley 9-015
Superior Valley 6-049
Temecula Valley 9-005
Terwilliger Valley 7-026
Thousand Oaks Area 4-019
Tule Lake 1-002-01
Twentynine Palms Valley 7-010
Ukiah Valley 1-052
Upper Kingston Valley 6-022
Upper Mojave River Valley 6-042
Upper Ojai Valley 4-001
Upper Santa Ana Valley - Chino 8-002.01
Upper Santa Ana Valley - Cucamonga 8-002.02
Upper Santa Ana Valley - Rialto-Colton 8-002.04
Upper Santa Ana Valley - Riverside-Arlington 8-002.03
Upper Santa Ana Valley - San Bernardino 8-002.06
Upper Santa Ana Valley - San Timoteo 8-002.08
Upper Santa Ana Valley - Temescal 8-002.09
Upper Santa Ana Valley - Yucaipa 8-002.07
Vallecito-Carrizo Valley 7-028
Ventura River Valley - Lower Ventura River 4-003.02
Ventura River Valley - Upper Ventura River 4-003.01
Vidal Valley 7-042
Ward Valley 7-003
Warren Valley 7-012
West Salton Sea
Wingate Valley 6-019
Yuma Valley 7-036

Delta Documents Primers on Cal Water Infrastructure, Water Rights and Government

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