Central Valley Project and State Water Project Drought Operations Plan and Operational Forecast April 1, 2014 through November 15, 2014

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | April 8th, 2014

Central Valley Project Improvement Act Implementation Plan For Fish Programs

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | July 20th, 2015

The purpose of this Plan is to describe the approach for prioritizing and implementing the anadromous fish-related provisions under the CVPIA over the next 5-10 years. Th

The purpose of this Plan is to describe the approach for prioritizing and implementing the anadromous fish-related provisions under the CVPIA over the next 5-10 years. This Plan will build upon the Final Restoration Plan (FRP, USFWS 2001) to integrate a decision-making framework across all programs with the goal of making all reasonable efforts to at least double natural production of anadromous fish in California’s Central Valley on a long-term, sustainable basis. The Plan develops an annual process for setting priorities and funding projects across CVPIA fish-related provisions and watersheds in the Central Valley. The new process uses an Adaptive Resource Management (ARM) approach with support from Decision-Support Models (DSMs) to prioritize implementation of management actions that have the highest probability of achieving biological objectives for wild populations of native anadromous fish. The ARM approach will also guide plans for monitoring and research by synthesizing existing monitoring data, annually updating DSMs using new information, and estimating the value of new information to the decision making process.

Challenges Facing the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta: Complex, Chaotic, or Simply Cantankerous?

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | April 9th, 2015

In 2014, the California Natural Resources Agency and the U.S. Department of the Interior asked the authors of this paper, as four former leaders of The Delta Science Prog

In 2014, the California Natural Resources Agency and the U.S. Department of the Interior asked the authors of this paper, as four former leaders of The Delta Science Program, to summarize the challenges faced by water supply and ecological resource managers in this critically important region of Northern California. They concluded that the challenges are so complex as to meet the definition of a “wicked” problem. Such problems can’t be ignored, defy straightforward characterization, and have no simple solutions. Yet they must be actively managed to maximize beneficial and minimize adverse outcomes. In this context, the following paper calls for Delta management to become more nimble and better coordinated.

Changes in Riparian Vegetation in the Southwestern United States: Historical Changes along the Mojave River, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | January 31st, 2001

Changes in the productivity of US West Coast fish stocks

Fisheries Research (Elsevier) | April 21st, 2023

The California Current ecosystem is highly dynamic at interannual to interdecadal time scales. Variability has been documented in pelagic and other fish species, but clim

The California Current ecosystem is highly dynamic at interannual to interdecadal time scales. Variability has been documented in pelagic and other fish species, but climate change may be altering the historical models of variation. This study investigates changes in productivity of 31 fish stocks in the California Current ecosystem. Productivity was measured from recent stock assessments, as the per-capita recruitment rate, estimated with a dynamic stock-recruitment model. Contrary to expectations, the dynamic stock-recruitment model fit better than the corresponding stationary model for only seven of the 31 stocks. There was little evidence of linear drift in productivity that might be expected to result from climate change. Climate variables improved forecast accuracy for a few stocks, but there was no common climate signal in productivity. One explanation of these results is that most of the west coast stocks are above their biomass levels for maximum sustainable yield, making them less susceptible to environmental variation. On the other hand, the dynamic recruitment models improved short-term forecasts for all stocks, which may be useful for quota setting. Finally, results for the subset of stocks with dynamic recruitment models could be used to establish dynamic biological reference points.

Characterization of brominated, chlorinated, and phosphate flame retardants in San Francisco Bay, an urban estuary

Science of the Total Environment (Elsevier) | February 20th, 2019

Flame retardant chemical additives are incorporated into consumer goods to meet flammability standards, and many have been detected in environmental matrices. A uniquely

Flame retardant chemical additives are incorporated into consumer goods to meet flammability standards, and many have been detected in environmental matrices. A uniquely wide-ranging characterization of flame retardants was conducted, including polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and 52 additional brominated, chlorinated, or phosphate analytes, in water, sediment, bivalves, and harbor seal blubber of San Francisco Bay, a highly urbanized estuary once considered a hot spot for PBDE contamination. Among brominated flame retardants, PBDEs remained the dominant contaminants in all matrices, though declines have been observed over the last decade following their phase-out. Hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) and other hydrophobic, brominated flame retardants were commonly detected at lower levels than PBDEs in sediment and tissue matrices. Dechlorane Plus (DP) and related chlorinated compounds were also detected at lower levels or not at all across all matrices. In contrast, phosphate flame retardants were widely detected in Bay water samples, with highest median concentrations in the order TCPP > TPhP > TBEP > TDCPP > TCEP. Concentrations in Bay water were often higher than in other estuarine and marine environments. Phosphate flame retardants were also widely detected in sediment, in the order TEHP > TCrP > TPhP > TDCPP > TBEP. Several were present in bivalves, with levels of TDCPP comparable to PBDEs. Only four phosphate flame retardants were detected in harbor seal blubber: TCPP, TDCPP, TCEP, and TPhP. Periodic, multi-matrix screening is recommended to track contaminant trends impacted by changes to flammability standards and manufacturing practices, with a particular focus on contaminants like TDCPP and TPhP that were found at levels comparable to thresholds for aquatic toxicity.

Characterization of Sediment Contamination in Central Bay Margin Areas

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | July 2nd, 2018

The Bay margins (i.e., mudflats and adjacent shallow areas of the Bay) are important habitats where there is high potential for wildlife to be exposed to contaminants. H

The Bay margins (i.e., mudflats and adjacent shallow areas of the Bay) are important habitats where there is high potential for wildlife to be exposed to contaminants. However, these areas are not routinely sampled due to logistical considerations. In 2015, the Regional Monitoring Program for Water Quality in San Francisco Bay (RMP) conducted a survey of margin areas in Central Bay to determine ambient concentrations of contaminants in sediment in these areas. The results generally confirmed the current conceptual model expectation that the margin sediments are often more contaminated that those in the subtidal open bay, with PCBs showing the largest differences. These differences between Central Bay margins and open water areas are likely the largest to be found in San Francisco Bay, as margins in other bay segments generally account for more of the total area and the adjacent land use is less heavily industrial. The ambient data provide a useful baseline context against which the severity of contamination at specific sites can be compared. The baseline data will also be useful in setting targets and tracking improvements in watershed loads and their nearfield receiving waters, or for appropriate re-use or disposal of dredged sediment. These spatially unbiased data can also improve estimates of mean concentrations and contaminant inventories in margins. For example, based on data from this study, contamination in the margin areas accounts for ~20% of PCBs in Central Bay which is disproportionately high compared to the margin area (5% of Central Bay). Given a large inventory of contaminants in the open bay compared to annual loads, changes may be difficult to see at the bay scale in the short- and mid-term. However, with margins’ smaller inventories and greater proximity to likely sources, improvements in margin sediments may be easier to observe. This ambient sampling effort also identified or verified one expected area of very high PCB concentrations which had not been previously measured. However, the randomized monitoring design used for the Central Bay study was not ideal for identifying “hot spots”. Future studies with a goal of detecting hot spots should use deterministic sampling designs.

Climate and landscape drive the pace and pattern of conifer encroachment into subalpine meadows

Ecological Society of America (Wiley) | May 8th, 2018

Mountain meadows have high biodiversity and help regulate stream water release following the snowmelt pulse. However, many meadows are experiencing woody plant encr

Mountain meadows have high biodiversity and help regulate stream water release following the snowmelt pulse. However, many meadows are experiencing woody plant encroachment, threatening these ecosystem services. While there have been field surveys of individual meadows and remote sensing‐based landscape‐scale studies of encroachment, what is missing is a broad‐scale, ground‐based study to understand common regional drivers, especially at high elevations, where land management has often played a less direct role. With this study, we ask: What are the climate and landscape conditions conducive to woody plant encroachment at the landscape scale, and how has historical climate variation affected tree recruitment in subalpine meadows over time? We measured density of encroaching trees across 340 subalpine meadows in the central Sierra Nevada, California, USA, and used generalized additive models (GAMs) to determine the relationship between landscape‐scale patterns of encroachment and meadow environmental properties. We determined ages of trees in 30 survey meadows, used observed climate and GAMs to model the relationship between timing of recruitment and climate since the early 1900s, and extrapolated recruitment patterns into the future using downscaled climate scenarios. Encroachment was high among meadows with lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Douglas ex Loudon var. murrayana (Balf.) Engelm.) in the immediate vicinity, at lower elevations, with physical conditions favoring strong soil drying, and with maximum temperatures above or below average. Climatic conditions during the year of germination were unimportant, with tree recruitment instead depending on a 3‐yr seed production period prior to germination and a 6‐yr seedling establishment period following germination. Recruitment was high when the seed production period had high snowpack, and when the seedling establishment period had warm summer maximum temperatures, high summer precipitation, and high snowpack. Applying our temporal model to downscaled output from four global climate models indicated that the average meadow will shift to forest by the end of the 21st century. Sierra Nevada meadow encroachment by conifers is ubiquitous and associated with climate conditions increasingly favorable for tree recruitment, which will lead to substantial changes in subalpine meadows and the ecosystem services they provide.

Climate benefits from establishing marine protected areas targeted at blue carbon solutions

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | April 13th, 2022

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are recognized as highly effective tools for marine conservation. They may also play an important role in mitigating climate change. A vari

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are recognized as highly effective tools for marine conservation. They may also play an important role in mitigating climate change. A variety of climate change solutions are rooted in the ocean, centered primarily around “blue carbon” and the capacity of marine life to sequester carbon dioxide (CO2) with some potential to reduce emissions. However, the global potential of these solutions remains misunderstood and untapped. Here, we analyze the potential impact on carbon removal and emissions reduction of adopting six ocean-based solutions in MPAs: coastal wetlands protection, coastal wetlands restoration, macroalgae protection, macroalgae restoration, seafloor protection, and seaweed farming. The carbon removal and avoided emissions achieved by implementing these solutions globally through 2060 were estimated using meta-analysis of existing studies. Applying all six ocean solutions under global implementation scenarios yields total emissions reduction by 2060 of 16.2 ± 1.82 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2-eq) for the plausible scenario and 24.8 ± 2.46 GtCO2-eq for the ambitious scenario. That equates to around 2% of the total carbon mitigation needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals of limiting global warming to 2 °C by 2050. Around 70% of this reduction is attributable to carbon removal and 30% to avoided emissions. Enhancing MPAs’ blue carbon potential could be a key contributor to drawing down carbon and could provide many additional benefits to the marine environment and human society, such as rebuilding biodiversity and sustaining food production. However, more regional-scale studies are needed to inform the best strategies for preserving and enhancing carbon removal in ocean sinks.

Climate change vulnerability of native and alien freshwater fishes of California: A systematic assessment approach

PLOS | May 22nd, 2013

Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a

Freshwater fishes are highly vulnerable to human-caused climate change. Because quantitative data on status and trends are unavailable for most fish species, a systematic assessment approach that incorporates expert knowledge was developed to determine status and future vulnerability to climate change of freshwater fishes in California, USA. The method uses expert knowledge, supported by literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes, to score ten metrics for both (1) current status of each species (baseline vulnerability to extinction) and (2) likely future impacts of climate change (vulnerability to extinction). Baseline and climate change vulnerability scores were derived for 121 native and 43 alien fish species. The two scores were highly correlated and were concordant among different scorers. Native species had both greater baseline and greater climate change vulnerability than did alien species. Fifty percent of California’s native fish fauna was assessed as having critical or high baseline vulnerability to extinction whereas all alien species were classified as being less or least vulnerable. For vulnerability to climate change, 82% of native species were classified as highly vulnerable, compared with only 19% for aliens. Predicted climate change effects on freshwater environments will dramatically change the fish fauna of California. Most native fishes will suffer population declines and become more restricted in their distributions; some will likely be driven to extinction. Fishes requiring cold water (,22uC) are particularly likely to go extinct. In contrast, most alien fishes will thrive, with some species increasing in abundance and range. However, a few alien species will likewise be negatively affected through loss of aquatic habitats during severe droughts and physiologically stressful conditions present in most waterways during summer. Our method has high utility for predicting vulnerability to climate change of diverse fish species. It should be useful for setting conservation priorities in many different regions.