Adaptation Planning for the Bay Point Operational Landscape Unit

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | April 15th, 2022

This document is not a vision or an adaptation plan, but rather is meant to catalyze discussion and offer resources around nature-based opportunities for SLR adaptation a

This document is not a vision or an adaptation plan, but rather is meant to catalyze discussion and offer resources around nature-based opportunities for SLR adaptation along Bay Point’s shoreline. The engagement and leadership of community-based stakeholders is key to the success of any adaptation planning effort, especially around issues as long-term and far-reaching as SLR and associated storm and tidal flooding. Without transparency and intentional community engagement throughout the planning process, opportunities for creative solutions will surely be missed and might lead to new problems or exacerbate existing ones disproportionately felt by low-income communities and communities of color. At the time this memo was written, there was not an active SLR adaptation working group or equivalent effort happening along the Bay Point shoreline. Consequently, the intent of this memo is to offer useful resources and ideas to support meaningful dialogue among stakeholders about shoreline adaptation planning. The Bay Point OLU study area is a mix of open space and developed areas at the mouth of the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers, where the Delta meets the San Francisco Bay. The Bay Point OLU comprises unincorporated land known as Bay Point, a census-designated place within ContraCosta County, the City of Pittsburg, the spheres of influence of Pittsburg and Concord, and District V of Contra Costa County (Figure 2). Chapter 2 examines how Bay Point’s landscape has changed over time and Chapter 3 summarizes some of the vulnerability studies, habitat goals, and adaptation plans that have been developed for the study area. Chapter 4 offers more in-depth descriptions of the Bay Point OLU along with detailed maps that can be used to kick start SLR adaptation planning with a stakeholder working group along this reach of shoreline. Chapter 5 concludes with conceptual ideas that may be appropriate for different reaches of the shoreline, as a menu of possibilities to be further developed through a stakeholder process. Chapter 6 suggests ideas on next steps needed to move this work forward and offers a list of potential stakeholders as a starting place towards an adaptation working group to identify, evaluate, and prioritize adaptation strategies to manage flood risks along Bay Point’s shoreline.

Adaptation Strategies for Agricultural Sustainability in Yolo County, California

California Energy Commission (CEC) | July 31st, 2012

This place-based case study in an agricultural county in California’s Central Valley focused on the period of 2010–2050, and dealt with biophysical and socioeconomic

This place-based case study in an agricultural county in California’s Central Valley focused on the period of 2010–2050, and dealt with biophysical and socioeconomic issues related to both mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to adaptation to an uncertain climate. In the past 100 years, changes in crop acreage has been more related to crop price and availability of irrigation water than to growing degree days during summer, and in fact, summer temperatures have increased less than winter temperatures. Econometric analysis indicated that warmer winters, as projected by Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory-Bias Corrected Constructed Analog during 2035–2050, could result in less wheat acreage, more alfalfa and tomato acreage, and slight effects on tree and vine crops. The Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model showed that these econometric projections did not reduce irrigation demand under either the B1 or A2 scenarios, but a diverse, water-efficient cropping pattern combined with improved irrigation technology reduced demand to 12 percent below the historic mean. Collaboration during development of Yolo County’s Climate Action Plan showed that nitrous oxide (mainly from nitrogen fertilizers) was the main source (40 percent) of agricultural emissions. Emissions from cropland and rangeland were several orders of magnitude lower than urbanized land per unit area. A survey distributed to 570 farmers and ranchers achieved a 34 percent response rate. Farmers concerned about climate change were more likely to implement water conservation practices, and adopt voluntary GHG mitigation practices. Use of the urban growth model (UPlan) showed that channeling much or all future urban development into existing urban areas will increase ecosystem services by preserving agricultural land and open space, immensely reducing the Yolo County’s GHG emissions, and greatly enhancing agricultural sustainability.

Adapting California’s Water Management to Climate Change

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | January 12th, 2009

Among the potential impacts of climate change, accelerated sea level rise and a reduced Sierra snowpack are the most certain. Both will pose significant challenges for wa

Among the potential impacts of climate change, accelerated sea level rise and a reduced Sierra snowpack are the most certain. Both will pose significant challenges for water supply and flood management. Water utilities have already begun to plan for these changes, but flood control agencies are lagging behind and face greater regulatory constraints. State leadership is needed to resolve some threats, including the risk of catastrophic failure in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. This report was prepared as part of the Preparing California for a Changing Climate project.

Adapting to Climate Change and Drought in Selected California Groundwater Basins: Local Achievements and Challenges

California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA) | August 27th, 2018

Climate change projections are for higher temperatures and extreme droughts by the end of the 21st century. This will alter the natural recharge of groundwater, including

Climate change projections are for higher temperatures and extreme droughts by the end of the 21st century. This will alter the natural recharge of groundwater, including decreased inflow from runoff, increased evaporative losses, and warmer and shorter winter seasons, impacts that are likely to exacerbate already existing groundwater overdraft in many basins. Additionally, the imported surface water that can be delivered from the Central Valley Project (CVP) and State Water Project (SWP) to areas reliant on this water for groundwater recharge and consumptive use is projected to be less reliable and more expensive. Yet groundwater is a critical water supply source during drought when it compensates for reduced surface water supplies. The need for proactive adaptation strategies to address the extreme droughts projected under climate change are frequently discussed, yet there are limited examples of such groundwater management strategies. This paper therefore explores:  1) How groundwater management agencies are planning for drought  2) What new approaches are currently being used that show promise for addressing the more extreme droughts projected under climate change? 

Adapting to Climate Change: Catching and Moving Water from Big Storms

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | February 15th, 2024

Addressing Institutional Vulnerabilities in California’s Drought Water Allocation, Part 1: Water Rights Administration and Oversight During Major Statewide Droughts, 1976–2016

California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA) | August 30th, 2018

Climate change has already begun to affect California’s hydrology and water resources, and droughts are likely to become more frequent, longer, and more intense

Climate change has already begun to affect California’s hydrology and water resources, and droughts are likely to become more frequent, longer, and more intense in the future (see Section 2.2.4). This project is designed to help state water governance and decision-making structures adapt to this changing climatic reality. We focus on how one of California’s primary water management institutions, the State Water Resources Control Board (Board), has responded in the past, and could better respond in the future, to droughts and their attendant challenges, including water shortage, uncertainty, and conflict. Click here for Part 2.

Addressing Institutional Vulnerabilities in California’s Drought Water Allocation, Part 2: Improving Water Rights Administration and Oversight for Future Droughts

California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA) | August 30th, 2018

 In California, droughts are likely to become more frequent, longer, and more intense in the future, posing increasing challenges for water management, and raising the s

 In California, droughts are likely to become more frequent, longer, and more intense in the future, posing increasing challenges for water management, and raising the stakes for effective drought response. This project aims to help state water governance and decision-making structures adapt to the changing climatic reality. In a companion report in this volume, we analyzed the strategies the State Water Resources Control Board (Board) used for water rights administration and oversight during the last four major statewide droughts. Our findings suggest that more proactive planning and preparation, enabling reduced reliance on in-drought improvisation, would improve the Board’s future drought responses. This report builds on that retrospective analysis with specific recommendations.  Click here for Part 1.

Advanced Quantitative Precipitation Information: Improving Monitoring and Forecasts of Precipitation, Streamflow, and Coastal Flooding in the San Francisco Bay Area

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | October 26th, 2022

Advanced Quantitative Precipitation Information (AQPI) is a synergistic project that combines observations and models to improve monitoring and forecasts of precipitation

Advanced Quantitative Precipitation Information (AQPI) is a synergistic project that combines observations and models to improve monitoring and forecasts of precipitation, streamflow, and coastal flooding in the San Francisco Bay area. As an experimental system, AQPI leverages more than a decade of research, innovation, and implementation of a statewide, state-of-the-art network of observations, and development of the next generation of weather and coastal forecast models. AQPI was developed as a prototype in response to requests from the water management community for improved information on precipitation, riverine, and coastal conditions to inform their decision making processes. Observation of precipitation in the complex Bay Area landscape of California’s coastal mountain ranges is known to be a challenging problem. But, with new advanced radar network techniques, AQPI is helping fill an important observational gap for this highly populated and vulnerable metropolitan area. The prototype AQPI system consists of improved weather radar data for precipitation estimation; additional surface measurements of precipitation, streamflow and soil moisture; and a suite of integrated forecast modeling systems to improve situational awareness about current and future water conditions from sky to sea. Together these tools will help improve emergency preparedness and public response to prevent loss of life and destruction of property during extreme storms accompanied by heavy precipitation and high coastal water levels - especially high-moisture laden atmospheric rivers. The Bay Area AQPI system could potentially be replicated in other urban regions in California, the United States, and world-wide.

Advancing Hydro-Economic Optimization to Identify Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Opportunities in California’s Water System

California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA) | August 27th, 2018

Long-term shifts in the timing and magnitude of reservoir inflows will affect water supply reliability in California. Hydro-economic models can help explore climate chang

Long-term shifts in the timing and magnitude of reservoir inflows will affect water supply reliability in California. Hydro-economic models can help explore climate change concerns by identifying system vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies for statewide water operations. This work contributes a new open-source limited foresight implementation of the CALVIN model, a hydro-economic model including roughly 90% of California’s urban and agricultural water demands. The model includes the ability to determine water allocations on an annual basis without knowledge of future availability, and to efficiently evaluate ensembles of streamflow projections representing a range of possible future climates. We then assess the vulnerability of the statewide system to changes in total annual runoff and the fraction of runoff occurring during winter, which primarily depends on temperature. Results are analyzed with a focus on adaptation strategies, aided by the economic representation of water demand in the model. These strategies include changes to reservoir operating policies, and conveyance and storage expansion. As water availability decreases, model results show quadratic increases in shortage cost, and corresponding increases in the marginal costs of adaptation strategies and environmental flow constraints. Reservoirs adapt to warmer climates by increasing average storage levels in winter and routing excess runoff to downstream reservoirs with available capacity. Both small and large changes to reservoir operations were observed compared to historical hydrology, showing that no single operating strategy achieves optimality for all reservoirs. Increasing the fraction of winter flow causes small increases in total shortage cost, indicating the ability to manage a changing hydrologic regime with adaptive reservoir operations. The results of this project improve estimates of the cost of climate change to California’s water system under a range of future conditions and highlight adaptation strategies that minimize costs of increased hydrologic variability. 

Agricultural Damages and Losses from ARkStorm Scenario Flooding in California

American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) | November 17th, 2016

Scientists designed the ARkStorm scenario to challenge the preparedness of California communities for widespread flooding with a historical precedence and increased l

Scientists designed the ARkStorm scenario to challenge the preparedness of California communities for widespread flooding with a historical precedence and increased likelihood under climate change. California is an important provider of vegetables, fruits, nuts, and other agricultural products to the nation. This study analyzes the agricultural damages and losses pertaining to annual crops, perennial crops, and livestock in California exposed to ARkStorm flooding. Statewide, flood damage is incurred on approximately 23% of annual crop acreage, 5% of perennial crop acreage, and 5% of livestock, e.g., dairy, feedlot, and poultry, acreage. The sum of field repair costs, forgone income, and product replacement costs span $3.7 and $7.1 billion (2009) for a range of inundation durations. Perennial crop loss estimates dominate, and the vulnerability of orchards and vineyards has likely increased with recent expansion. Crop reestablishment delays from levee repair and dewatering more than double annual crop losses in the delta islands, assuming the fragile system does not remain permanently flooded. The exposure of almost 200,000 dairy cows to ARkStorm flooding poses livestock evacuation challenges.