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Responses and impacts of atmospheric rivers to climate change

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 9th, 2020

Summary

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are characterized by intense moisture transport, which, on landfall, produce precipitation which can be both beneficial and destructive. ARs in C

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are characterized by intense moisture transport, which, on landfall, produce precipitation which can be both beneficial and destructive. ARs in California, for example, are known to have ended drought conditions but also to have caused substantial socio-economic damage from landslides and flooding linked to extreme precipitation. Understanding how AR characteristics will respond to a warming climate is, therefore, vital to the resilience of communities affected by them, such as the western USA, Europe, East Asia and South Africa. In this Review, we use a theoretical framework to synthesize understanding of the dynamic and thermodynamic responses of ARs to anthropogenic warming and connect them to observed and projected changes and impacts revealed by observations and complex models. Evidence suggests that increased atmospheric moisture (governed by Clausius–Clapeyron scaling) will enhance the intensity of AR-related precipitation — and related hydrological extremes — but with changes that are ultimately linked to topographic barriers. However, due to their dependency on both weather and climate-scale processes, which themselves are often poorly constrained, projections are uncertain. To build confidence and improve resilience, future work must focus efforts on characterizing the multiscale development of ARs and in obtaining observations from understudied regions, including the West Pacific, South Pacific and South Atlantic.

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Snow Level Characteristics and Impacts of a Spring Typhoon-Originating Atmospheric River in the Sierra Nevada, USA

Atmosphere (MDPI) | June 15th, 2018

Summary

On 5–7 April 2018, a landfalling atmospheric river resulted in widespread heavy precipitation in the Sierra Nevada of California and Nevada. Observed snow levels during

On 5–7 April 2018, a landfalling atmospheric river resulted in widespread heavy precipitation in the Sierra Nevada of California and Nevada. Observed snow levels during this event were among the highest snow levels recorded since observations began in 2002 and exceeded 2.75 km for 31 h in the northern Sierra Nevada and 3.75 km for 12 h in the southern Sierra Nevada. The anomalously high snow levels and over 80 mm of precipitation caused flooding, debris flows, and wet snow avalanches in the upper elevations of the Sierra Nevada. The origin of this atmospheric river was super typhoon Jelawat, whose moisture remnants were entrained and maintained by an extratropical cyclone in the northeast Pacific. This event was notable due to its April occurrence, as six other typhoon remnants that caused heavy precipitation with high snow levels (mean = 2.92 km) in the northern Sierra Nevada all occurred during October.

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Storm rainfall conditions for floods and debris flows from recently burned areas in southwestern Colorado and southern California

Geomorphology (Elsevier) | April 15th, 2008

Summary

Debris flows generated during rain storms on recently burned areas have destroyed lives and property throughout the Western U.S. Field evidence indicate that unli

Debris flows generated during rain storms on recently burned areas have destroyed lives and property throughout the Western U.S. Field evidence indicate that unlike landslide-triggered debris flows, these events have no identifiable initiation source and can occur with little or no antecedent moisture. Using rain gage and response data from five fires in Colorado and southern California, we document the rainfall conditions that have triggered post-fire debris flows and develop empirical rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for the occurrence of debris flows and floods following wildfires in these settings. This information can provide guidance for warning systems and planning for emergency response in similar settings. Debris flows were produced from 25 recently burned basins in Colorado in response to 13 short-duration, high-intensity convective storms. Debris flows were triggered after as little as six to 10 min of storm rainfall. About 80% of the storms that generated debris flows lasted less than 3 h, with most of the rain falling in less than 1 h. The storms triggering debris flows ranged in average intensity between 1.0 and 32.0 mm/h, and had recurrence intervals of two years or less. Threshold rainfall conditions for floods and debris flows sufficiently large to pose threats to life and property from recently burned areas in south-central, and southwestern, Colorado are defined by: I = 6.5D− 0.7 and I = 9.5D− 0.7, respectively, where I = rainfall intensity (in mm/h) and D = duration (in hours). Debris flows were generated from 68 recently burned areas in southern California in response to long-duration frontal storms. The flows occurred after as little as two hours, and up to 16 h, of low-intensity (2–10 mm/h) rainfall. The storms lasted between 5.5 and 33 h, with average intensities between 1.3 and 20.4 mm/h, and had recurrence intervals of two years or less. Threshold rainfall conditions for life- and property-threatening floods and debris flows during the first winter season following fires in Ventura County, and in the San Bernardino, San Gabriel and San Jacinto Mountains of southern California are defined by I = 12.5D−0.4, and I = 7.2D−0.4, respectively. A threshold defined for flood and debris-flow conditions following a year of vegetative recovery and sediment removal for the San Bernardino, San Gabriel and San Jacinto Mountains of I = 14.0D−0.5 is approximately 25 mm/h higher than that developed for the first year following fires. The thresholds defined here are significantly lower than most identified for unburned settings, perhaps because of the difference between extremely rapid, runoff-dominated processes acting in burned areas and longer-term, infiltration-dominated processes on unburned hillslopes.

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Synoptic conditions associated with cool season post-fire debris flows in the Transverse Ranges of southern California

Natural Hazards (Springer) | April 22nd, 2017

Summary

The Transverse Ranges of southern California often experience fire followed by flood. This sequence sometimes causes post-fire debris flows (PFDFs) that threaten life a

The Transverse Ranges of southern California often experience fire followed by flood. This sequence sometimes causes post-fire debris flows (PFDFs) that threaten life and property situated on alluvial fans. The combination of steep topography, highly erodible rock and soil, and wildfire, coupled with intense rainfall, can initiate PFDFs even in cases of relatively small storm rainfall totals. This study identifies common atmospheric conditions during which damaging PFDFs occur in the Transverse Ranges during the cool season, defined here as November–March. A compilation of 93 PFDF events during 1980–2014 triggered by 19 precipitation events is compared against previous studies of the events, reanalysis, precipitation, and radar data to estimate PFDF trigger times. Each event was analyzed to determine common atmospheric features and their range of values present at and preceding the trigger time. Results show atmospheric rivers are a dominant feature, observed in 13 of the 19 events. Other common features include low-level winds orthogonal to the Transverse Ranges and other conditions favorable for orographic forcing, a strong upper level jet south of the region, and moist-neutral static stability. Several events included closed low-pressure systems or narrow cold frontal rain bands. These findings can help forecasters identify more precisely the synoptic-scale atmospheric conditions required to produce PFDF-triggering rainfall and thus reduce uncertainty when issuing warnings.

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The Northern California 2018 Extreme Fire Season

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | February 19th, 2020

Summary

The fire season of 2018 was the most extreme on record in Northern California in terms of the number of fatalities (95), over 22,000 structures destroyed, and over 600,00

The fire season of 2018 was the most extreme on record in Northern California in terms of the number of fatalities (95), over 22,000 structures destroyed, and over 600,000 ha burned. The most deadly and destructive fire in California history, the Camp Fire, occurred in Butte County in the Sierra Nevada foothills in early November, and caused 85 fatalities and destroyed nearly 19,000 structures. The largest fire complex in state history, the Mendocino Complex, which included the Ranch fire, the largest single fire in state history, burned nearly 186,000 ha. It occurred in July and August, killing one firefighter. In western Shasta County nearly 138,000 ha burned from July through September in the Carr, Hirz, and Delta Fires. These fires caused multiple closures of Interstate 5 and exhibited some of the most extreme fire behavior ever observed in California. The Carr Fire caused eight fatalities, including two firefighters and two workers supporting firefighting efforts, burned over 1,100 homes in west Redding, caused the evacuation of one-third of the city, and produced an extreme fire vortex with an Enhanced Fujita scale rating between 136 to 165 mph, making it arguably the strongest tornado type event in state history, and one of the strongest documented cases in the world (Lareau et al. 2018).

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The Rainfall Intensity-Duration Control of Debris Flows After Wildfire

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | May 23rd, 2023

Summary

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The Science and Prediction of Post-Fire Debris Flows in the Western United States

U.S. Forest Service (USDA) | August 1st, 2017

Summary

Debris flows are among the most destructive hydrological consequences of fires in steep watersheds. The high likelihood of catastrophic wildfires in the western U

Debris flows are among the most destructive hydrological consequences of fires in steep watersheds. The high likelihood of catastrophic wildfires in the western United States and the encroachment of human activities into steep fire-prone areas have created the need to better understand, predict, and mitigate these hazards. This article highlights recent advances in understanding post-fire debris-flow generation and provides an overview of the evolution of hazard assessments in the western United States. Specific emphasis is placed upon free, publicly available toolsdeveloped by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and available for analyses in support of Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) and Emergency Watershed Protection (EWP) program activities. These tools consist of empirical models that predict the likelihood, potential volume, and the rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for debris flows in recently burned watersheds.

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The season for large fires in Southern California is projected to lengthen in a changing climate

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | February 17th, 2022

Summary

Southern California is a biodiversity hotspot and home to over 23 million people. Over recent decades the annual wildfire area in the coastal southern California region h

Southern California is a biodiversity hotspot and home to over 23 million people. Over recent decades the annual wildfire area in the coastal southern California region has not significantly changed. Yet how fire regime will respond to future anthropogenic climate change remains an important question. Here, we estimate wildfire probability in southern California at station scale and daily resolution using random forest algorithms and downscaled earth system model simulations. We project that large fire days will increase from 36 days/year during 1970–1999 to 58 days/year under moderate greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP4.5) and 71 days/year by 2070–2099 under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5). The large fire season will be more intense and have an earlier onset and delayed end. Our findings suggest that despite the lack of a contemporary trend in fire regime, projected greenhouse gas emissions will substantially increase the fire danger in southern California by 2099.

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Wildfire and Drought: Impacts on wildfire planning, behavior, and effects

National Integrated Drought Information System | March 4th, 2016

Summary

The relationship between drought and wildfire can appear to be simple, but the drought and wildfire nexus encompasses a profusion of human and environmental impacts. Imag

The relationship between drought and wildfire can appear to be simple, but the drought and wildfire nexus encompasses a profusion of human and environmental impacts. Images of burning forests, neighborhoods, and “smoked out” communities are all now commonplace. The National Integrated Drought Information System, in partnership with NOAA’s Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC), the California Nevada Applications Program (CNAP, a NOAA Regional Integrated Science Applications team), the Desert Research Institute (DRI), and the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC), hosted the Integrating Drought Science and Information into Wildfire Management Workshop in Boise, Idaho on 21-22 October 2015. The 22 participants in the workshop were invited as representatives of a broad spectrum of expertise including prescribed fire, wildland fire management, climatology, smoke and air quality, fuels management, fire behavior, drought, and policy. In this report, we present the opportunities and challenges the workshop participants identified and the impacts of drought on wildfire. The workshop also provided the opportunity to identify next steps in understanding and addressing drought impacts on wildfire.

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Wildfires increasingly impact western US fluvial networks

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | April 30th, 2021

Summary

Wildfires are increasing globally in frequency, severity, and extent, but their impact on fluvial networks, and the resources they provide, remains unclear. We

Wildfires are increasing globally in frequency, severity, and extent, but their impact on fluvial networks, and the resources they provide, remains unclear. We combine remote sensing of burn perimeter and severity, in-situ water quality monitoring, and longitudinal modeling to create the first large-scale, long-term estimates of stream+river length impacted by wildfire for the western US. We find that wildfires directly impact ~6% of the total stream+river length between 1984 and 2014, increasing at a rate of 342 km/year. When longitudinal propagation of water quality impacts is included, we estimate that wildfires affect ~11% of the total stream+river length. Our results indicate that wildfire activity is one of the largest drivers of aquatic impairment, though it is not routinely reported by regulatory agencies, as wildfire impacts on fluvial networks remain unconstrained. We identify key actions to address this knowledge gap and better understand the growing threat to fluvial networks, water security, and public health risks.

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