Adaptability and adaptations of California’s water supply system to dry climate warming

Climactic Change (Springer) | November 27th, 2007

Economically optimal operational changes and adaptations for California’s water supply system are examined for a dry form of climate warming (GFDL CM2.1 A2) with year 2

Economically optimal operational changes and adaptations for California’s water supply system are examined for a dry form of climate warming (GFDL CM2.1 A2) with year 2050 water demands and land use. Economically adaptive water management for this climate scenario is compared to a similar scenario with the historical climate. The effects of population growth and land use alone are developed for comparison. Compared with the historic hydrology, optimized operations for the dry climate warming scenario raise water scarcity and total operation costs by $490 million/year with year 2050 demands. Actual costs might be somewhat higher where non-economic objectives prevail in water management. The paper examines the economical mix of adaptation, technologies, policies, and operational changes available to keep water supply impacts to such modest levels. Results from this screening model suggest promising alternatives and likely responses and impacts. Optimized operations of ground and surface water storage change significantly with climate. Dry-warm climate change increases the seasonal storage range of surface reservoirs and aquifers. Surface reservoir peak storage usually occurs about a month earlier under dry-warm climate change.

Advanced Quantitative Precipitation Information: Improving Monitoring and Forecasts of Precipitation, Streamflow, and Coastal Flooding in the San Francisco Bay Area

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | October 26th, 2022

Advanced Quantitative Precipitation Information (AQPI) is a synergistic project that combines observations and models to improve monitoring and forecasts of precipitation

Advanced Quantitative Precipitation Information (AQPI) is a synergistic project that combines observations and models to improve monitoring and forecasts of precipitation, streamflow, and coastal flooding in the San Francisco Bay area. As an experimental system, AQPI leverages more than a decade of research, innovation, and implementation of a statewide, state-of-the-art network of observations, and development of the next generation of weather and coastal forecast models. AQPI was developed as a prototype in response to requests from the water management community for improved information on precipitation, riverine, and coastal conditions to inform their decision making processes. Observation of precipitation in the complex Bay Area landscape of California’s coastal mountain ranges is known to be a challenging problem. But, with new advanced radar network techniques, AQPI is helping fill an important observational gap for this highly populated and vulnerable metropolitan area. The prototype AQPI system consists of improved weather radar data for precipitation estimation; additional surface measurements of precipitation, streamflow and soil moisture; and a suite of integrated forecast modeling systems to improve situational awareness about current and future water conditions from sky to sea. Together these tools will help improve emergency preparedness and public response to prevent loss of life and destruction of property during extreme storms accompanied by heavy precipitation and high coastal water levels - especially high-moisture laden atmospheric rivers. The Bay Area AQPI system could potentially be replicated in other urban regions in California, the United States, and world-wide.

Advancing Hydro-Economic Optimization to Identify Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Opportunities in California’s Water System

California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA) | August 27th, 2018

Long-term shifts in the timing and magnitude of reservoir inflows will affect water supply reliability in California. Hydro-economic models can help explore climate chang

Long-term shifts in the timing and magnitude of reservoir inflows will affect water supply reliability in California. Hydro-economic models can help explore climate change concerns by identifying system vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies for statewide water operations. This work contributes a new open-source limited foresight implementation of the CALVIN model, a hydro-economic model including roughly 90% of California’s urban and agricultural water demands. The model includes the ability to determine water allocations on an annual basis without knowledge of future availability, and to efficiently evaluate ensembles of streamflow projections representing a range of possible future climates. We then assess the vulnerability of the statewide system to changes in total annual runoff and the fraction of runoff occurring during winter, which primarily depends on temperature. Results are analyzed with a focus on adaptation strategies, aided by the economic representation of water demand in the model. These strategies include changes to reservoir operating policies, and conveyance and storage expansion. As water availability decreases, model results show quadratic increases in shortage cost, and corresponding increases in the marginal costs of adaptation strategies and environmental flow constraints. Reservoirs adapt to warmer climates by increasing average storage levels in winter and routing excess runoff to downstream reservoirs with available capacity. Both small and large changes to reservoir operations were observed compared to historical hydrology, showing that no single operating strategy achieves optimality for all reservoirs. Increasing the fraction of winter flow causes small increases in total shortage cost, indicating the ability to manage a changing hydrologic regime with adaptive reservoir operations. The results of this project improve estimates of the cost of climate change to California’s water system under a range of future conditions and highlight adaptation strategies that minimize costs of increased hydrologic variability. 

Agricultural Damages and Losses from ARkStorm Scenario Flooding in California

American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) | November 17th, 2016

Scientists designed the ARkStorm scenario to challenge the preparedness of California communities for widespread flooding with a historical precedence and increased l

Scientists designed the ARkStorm scenario to challenge the preparedness of California communities for widespread flooding with a historical precedence and increased likelihood under climate change. California is an important provider of vegetables, fruits, nuts, and other agricultural products to the nation. This study analyzes the agricultural damages and losses pertaining to annual crops, perennial crops, and livestock in California exposed to ARkStorm flooding. Statewide, flood damage is incurred on approximately 23% of annual crop acreage, 5% of perennial crop acreage, and 5% of livestock, e.g., dairy, feedlot, and poultry, acreage. The sum of field repair costs, forgone income, and product replacement costs span $3.7 and $7.1 billion (2009) for a range of inundation durations. Perennial crop loss estimates dominate, and the vulnerability of orchards and vineyards has likely increased with recent expansion. Crop reestablishment delays from levee repair and dewatering more than double annual crop losses in the delta islands, assuming the fragile system does not remain permanently flooded. The exposure of almost 200,000 dairy cows to ARkStorm flooding poses livestock evacuation challenges.

Agricultural Irrigation in This Drought: Where is the Water and Where Is It Going?

University of California Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics | May 14th, 2015

In the midst of its fourth year of drought, California now faces an estimated reduction in surface-water availability of 8.8 million acre-feet (maf) out of 29 maf in agri

In the midst of its fourth year of drought, California now faces an estimated reduction in surface-water availability of 8.8 million acre-feet (maf) out of 29 maf in agricultural applied water statewide. However, groundwater, the buffer water supply during drought, is replacing about 6.2 maf of surface water via additional pumping. This increased groundwater pumping is in addition to the 1.5 maf of annual average groundwater overdraft in the Central Valley. The net reduction of 2.6 maf in the total supply in 2015 may result in about 564,000 acres fallowed statewide, or about 120,000 more acres than last year's fallowing estimates.

American and Sacramento Rivers, California, Erodibility Measurements and Model

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | August 11th, 2021

A previous report by the authors described sediment sampling and drilling by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) beside the American and Sacramento Rivers near Sacramento,

A previous report by the authors described sediment sampling and drilling by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) beside the American and Sacramento Rivers near Sacramento, California, in support of a U.S. Army Corps of Engineers project focused on regional flood control. The drilling was performed to define lithology, extract samples for laboratory testing, and perform borehole erosion tests (BETs). The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) performed jet erodibility tests (JETs) near each drilling site, and a team from Texas A&M University performed laboratory tests with an erosion function apparatus (EFA). Collectively, the effort was intended to reveal spatial variations in sediment erodibility and provide data for use in a model to simulate morphological response to a major flood. The data collected by the USGS are available in a public data release. This report, developed in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, provides comparisons of the three types of measurements of the erodibility of riverbed sediments. The BET is performed in the field and reveals erodibility of sediments below the bed surface. The JET is likewise performed in the field but reveals only erodibility of exposed sediments. The EFA test is done in the laboratory and was performed on soils extracted from different depths beneath the bed surface, in many cases reconstituted for laboratory testing. Tests were performed at nominally similar locations but differed by meters to tens of meters in horizontal locations. The comparison was undertaken to investigate differences among results obtained by the individual measurement approaches and to elucidate pros and cons of each method. The critical shear stress to initiate erosion and the rate of change of erosion rate per unit increase of excess shear stress, sometimes referred to as the erosion coefficient, served as the primary basis for comparison. The three test methods in some cases resulted in order of magnitude differences in estimates of these parameters. Some differences could be attributed to variances in site location or result from testing surface sediment versus a deeper layer, but systematic differences are also evident in the results. The tests performed in the laboratory using the EFA resulted in much lower values of critical shear stress and much higher values of the erosion coefficient compared to the JET tests performed by the USDA team on surface sediments. Critical shear stress was poorly resolved in the BET results because of the limited number of results per site, but the erosion coefficients derived from BET results were systematically lower than those obtained using the EFA. A new, simplified approach is also proposed to estimate the increase in channel cross-sectional area during a large flood, given data describing the initial river cross section, riverbed erodibility parameters, and peak flood discharge and duration. The model runs until the cross section erodes to an equilibrium condition or the flood ends. Output describes the area of the cross section at the end of the simulation and the time required to reach equilibrium if it was reached within the simulated period. The model assumes unique, constant values for both the critical shear stress and the erosion coefficient and represents the fluid mechanics in a simplified way, making it of limited value for quantitative predictions. It does, however, provide an indication of which cross sections are most likely to undergo the greatest change in the design event and can be used to investigate sensitivity of erosion predictions to variability in sediment erodibility measurements.

An assessment of future tidal marsh resilience in the San Francisco Estuary through modeling and quantifiable metrics of sustainability

Frontiers in Environmental Science (Frontiers) | November 25th, 2022

Quantitative, broadly applicable metrics of resilience are needed to effectively manage tidal marshes into the future. Here we quantified three metrics of temporal marsh

Quantitative, broadly applicable metrics of resilience are needed to effectively manage tidal marshes into the future. Here we quantified three metrics of temporal marsh resilience: time to marsh drowning, time to marsh tipping point, and the probability of a regime shift, defined as the conditional probability of a transition to an alternative super-optimal, suboptimal, or drowned state. We used organic matter content (loss on ignition, LOI) and peat age combined with the Coastal Wetland Equilibrium Model (CWEM) to track wetland development and resilience under different sea-level rise scenarios in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) of California. A 100-year hindcast of the model showed excellent agreement (R2 = 0.96) between observed (2.86 mm/year) and predicted vertical accretion rates (2.98 mm/year) and correctly predicted a recovery in LOI (R2 = 0.76) after the California Gold Rush. Vertical accretion in the tidal freshwater marshes of the Delta is dominated by organic production. The large elevation range of the vegetation combined with high relative marsh elevation provides Delta marshes with resilience and elevation capital sufficiently great to tolerate centenary sea-level rise (CLSR) as high as 200 cm. The initial relative elevation of a marsh was a strong determinant of marsh survival time and tipping point. For a Delta marsh of average elevation, the tipping point at which vertical accretion no longer keeps up with the rate of sea-level rise is 50 years or more. Simulated, triennial additions of 6 mm of sediment via episodic atmospheric rivers increased the proportion of marshes surviving from 51% to 72% and decreased the proportion drowning from 49% to 28%. Our temporal metrics provide critical time frames for adaptively managing marshes, restoring marshes with the best chance of survival, and seizing opportunities for establishing migration corridors, which are all essential for safeguarding future habitats for sensitive species.

An Assessment of Potential Severe Droughts in the Colorado River Basin

American Water Resources Association (AWRA) | September 15th, 2022

An evaluation of atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific in CMIP5 and their response to warming under RCP 8.5

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | November 13th, 2015

Landfalling atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific are evaluated in historical (1980–2005) simulations from 28 models participating in the fifth phase of the Couple

Landfalling atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific are evaluated in historical (1980–2005) simulations from 28 models participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and compared to the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications and ERA-Interim reanalyses. Landfalling dates are identified as having spatially elongated high wind and moisture features in physical proximity to the coastline. Model performance relative to reanalysis is found to be quite variable. The majority can resolve the spatial structure of landfalling events, but few correctly resolve the frequency distribution, interannual variability in number and amplitude of moisture flux, and median landfalling latitude. The response of a subset of high-performing models to projected warming at the end of the 21st century is investigated using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 (2070–2100) projections. Selected models show a broadening of the frequency distribution, with the largest increase in frequency occurring equatorward of peak historical frequency. While there is a robust increase in AR-related moisture transport compared to the historical period, this increase is not linked to more extreme AR events within the context of the projected future climate. The occurrence of years with many AR dates is greater at the end of the 21st century than during the historical period. The equatorward increase in peak historical frequency is colocated with increases in the 850 and 250 hPa zonal winds. The response in moisture flux to warming is mostly thermodynamic, but equatorward of its peak distribution, it is dominated by a dynamic response.

An overview of multi-dimensional models of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | December 1st, 2016

Over the past fifteen years, the development and application of models in San Francisco Bay and the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta has transformed our ability to analyze an

Over the past fifteen years, the development and application of models in San Francisco Bay and the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta has transformed our ability to analyze and understand the underlying physics of the system. Initial applications of three-dimensional models focused primarily on salt intrusion, and provided a valuable resource for investigating how sea level rise and levee failures in the Delta could influence water quality in the Delta in the future. However, multi-dimensional models have also provided significant insights into some of the fundamental biological relationships that have shaped our thinking about the system by exploring the relationship between X2, flow, fish abundance, and the low salinity zone. Through modeling, it has been possible to move beyond salinity to understand how large-scale changes to the system are likely to affect sediment dynamics, and to assess the potential effects on species that rely on turbidity for habitat. Lastly, the coupling of multi-dimensional hydrodynamic models with particle tracking models has led to advances in our thinking about residence time, the retention of food organisms, the effect of south Delta exports on larval entrainment, and the pathways and behaviors of salmonids that travel through the Delta. This chapter provides an overview of these recent advances and how they have increased our understanding of the distribution and movement of fish and food organisms. The applications presented serve as a guide to the current state of the science of Delta modeling and provide examples of how we can use multidimensional models to predict how future Delta conditions will affect both fish and water supply.