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Characterizing uncertain sea-level rise projections to support investment decisions

PLOS | February 17th, 2018

Summary

Many institutions worldwide are considering how to include uncertainty about future changes in sea-levels and storm surges into their investment decisions regardi

Many institutions worldwide are considering how to include uncertainty about future changes in sea-levels and storm surges into their investment decisions regarding large capital infrastructures. Here we examine how to characterize deeply uncertain climate change projections to support such decisions using Robust Decision Making analysis. We address questions regarding how to confront the potential for future changes in low probability but large impact flooding events due to changes in sea-levels and storm surges. Such extreme events can affect investments in infrastructure but have proved difficult to consider in such decisions because of the deep uncertainty surrounding them. This study utilizes Robust Decision Making methods to address two questions applied to investment decisions at the Port of Los Angeles: (1) Under what future conditions would a Port of Los Angeles decision to harden its facilities against extreme flood scenarios at the next upgrade pass a cost-benefit test, and (2) Do sea-level rise projections and other information suggest such conditions are sufficiently likely to justify such an investment? We also compare and contrast the Robust Decision Making methods with a full probabilistic analysis. These two analysis frameworks result in similar investment recommendations for different idealized future sea- level projections, but provide different information to decision makers and envision different types of engagement with stakeholders. In particular, the full probabilistic analysis begins by aggregating the best scientific information into a single set of joint probability distributions, while the Robust Decision Making analysis identifies scenarios where a decision to invest in near-term response to extreme sea-level rise passes a cost-benefit test, and then assembles scientific information of differing levels of confidence to help decision makers judge whether or not these scenarios are sufficiently likely to justify making such investments. Results highlight the highly-localized and context dependent nature of applying Robust Decision Making methods to inform investment decisions.

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Climate Change and the Delta

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | October 1st, 2016

Summary

Climate change amounts to a fast approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic

Climate change amounts to a fast approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic variability, complex water-management systems have been developed, even as the Delta’s natural ecosystems have been largely devastated. Climate change is projected to challenge these management and ecological systems in different ways that are characterized by different levels of uncertainty. Future precipitation changes are less certain, with as many climate models projecting wetter conditions as drier. Warmer temperatures will likely enhance evaporation and raise water temperatures. Consequently, climate change is projected to yield both more extreme flood risks and greater drought risks. Effects on the Delta ecosystem that are traceable to warming include sea level rise, reduced snowpack, earlier snowmelt and larger storm-driven streamflow, warmer and longer summers, warmer summer water temperatures, and water-quality changes. These changes and their uncertainties will challenge the operations of water projects and uses throughout the Delta’s watershed and delivery areas. Although the effects of climate change on Delta ecosystems may be profound, the end results are difficult to predict, except that native species will fare worse than invaders. Successful preparation for the coming changes will require greater integration of monitoring, modeling, and decision-making across time, variables, and space than has been historically normal.

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Climate Change and the Delta: A Synthesis (Public Review Draft)

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | March 23rd, 2018

Summary

The Delta Reform Act of 2009 (Water Code Section 85066) requires that the Delta Stewardship Council adopt a Delta Plan (the Plan) to achieve the coequal goals of providin

The Delta Reform Act of 2009 (Water Code Section 85066) requires that the Delta Stewardship Council adopt a Delta Plan (the Plan) to achieve the coequal goals of providing a more reliable water supply for California and protecting, restoring, and enhancing the Delta ecosystem (Water Code Section 85000). In the time since the Plan was adopted in 2013, a significant shift in State planning for Delta ecosystem protection, restoration, and enhancement has occurred, prompting review of the Delta Plan to examine whether its strategies are still suited to achieve the ecological goals of the Delta Reform Act. As such, the Delta Stewardship Council (Council) is developing an amendment of the Plan’s Chapter 4, Protect, Restore, and Enhance the Delta Ecosystem. Council staff are reviewing the best-available science to inform amendment of Chapter 4 of the Delta Plan. To support this effort, Council staff have developed three science synthesis papers. This paper focuses on the effects of climate change in the Delta and is accompanied by two other papers focused on the Delta ecosystem (terrestrial and aquatic resources) and restoration. Climate change is of interest for the Chapter 4 amendment given recent rapid advancements in research on climate change and its effects on the Delta ecosystem that have occurred since the Delta Plan was adopted in 2013 (Dettinger et al. 2016). Climate change has the potential to significantly affect the Delta ecosystem by raising air and water temperatures, changing the timing and volume of flows into and through the Delta, increasing tidal inundation with sea-level rise (SLR), and increasing salinity intrusion into the Delta. Climate change is recognized as a global stressor in Chapter 4 of the 2013 Delta Plan, but the effects of climate change on Delta ecosystems are discussed only briefly and with limited consideration of management strategies that address the issue. Chapter 4 of the Delta Plan identifies five key stressors to the Delta ecosystem and core strategies for addressing each. Climate change has interrelated effects on all five core strategy areas: Delta flows, habitat, water quality, non-native 28 species, and hatcheries and harvest management. The Delta Reform Act specifies consideration of “the future impact of climate change and sea-level rise” (Water Code Section 85066), and identifies a restoration timeline horizon of 2100 (Water Code Section 85302). More generally, Executive Order B-30-15, signed by Governor Brown in April 2015, requires that State agencies incorporate climate change into planning and investment decisions, and that they prioritize natural infrastructure and actions for climate preparedness.

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Climate, Drought, and Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the Fourth California Climate Assessment

California Energy Commission (CEC) | August 27th, 2018

Summary

Daily temperature and precipitation over California at a resolution of 1/16° (about 6 km, or 3.7 miles) were generated to support climate change impact studies for the

Daily temperature and precipitation over California at a resolution of 1/16° (about 6 km, or 3.7 miles) were generated to support climate change impact studies for the energy system and other sectors featured in the California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment. The data, derived from 32 coarse-resolution (~ 100 km) global climate models (GCMs), were bias corrected and downscaled using the Localized Constructed Analogues (LOCA) statistical method. The data cover 1950-2005 for the historical period and 2006-2100 for two future climate projections using medium and high greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions scenarios. Statewide, temperature is projected to increase 2-4 °C (medium emissions scenario) to 4-7 °C (high emissions scenario) by the end of this century. Precipitation shows fewer wet days, wetter winters, drier springs and autumns, and an increase in dry years as well as maximum precipitation in a single day. Ten GCMs that closely simulate California’s climate are identified for studies where all 32 GCMs cannot be used. Additional variables were downscaled for these 10, including wind speed, specific and relative humidity, and surface solar radiation. Four models that span the temperature and precipitation changes from the 10 are identified for studies that cannot accommodate the 10. Wind speed shows small decreases, while relative humidity changes are more complicated, with coastal increases but decreases inland. Surface solar radiation shows small Southern California increases in spring. The downscaled fields were applied to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model to develop snow cover, soil moisture, runoff, water loss from plants, surface heat fluxes, and other parameters. Moisture deficit is projected to increase over much of the state, particularly Northern California and the Sierra Nevada, while top level soil moisture is projected to decrease, particularly in Southern California. Most streamflows shift to earlier in the year, with the bigger shifts experienced in basins which currently have substantial contributions from snowmelt. Two versions of a 20-year dry spell were identified from one of the GCM simulations to investigate future drought: the original episode from 2051-2070, and one shifted earlier in the century with temperatures consistent with 2023-2042. For both, we provide downscaled temperatures and precipitation along with VIC hydrological output. Sea level rise (SLR) projections for California were generated using a probabilistic approach employing estimates of the components that contribute to global and regional SLR, including new science on the possibility of increased contribution from Antarctica. Hourly projections of sea level at selected coastal locations were generated out to 2100 that include tides, regional and local weather influences, and short period Pacific climate fluctuations along with the aforementioned sea level rise scenarios. The climate scenario and SLR data are available online from cal-adapt.org.

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Coastal flooding - potential projections: 2000–2100

California Energy Commission (CEC) | July 31st, 2012

Summary

The change in flooding potential along the California coast over the twenty?first century was estimated from both ocean wave and sea level rise projections produced from

The change in flooding potential along the California coast over the twenty?first century was estimated from both ocean wave and sea level rise projections produced from global climate model data. Changes in flooding potential were inferred from changes in wave runup (the vertical height reached by wave?driven water levels), which depends on the instantaneous sea level (or still water level), beach slope, and wave height and wave period. The still water level is the superposition of regional (or relative) mean sea level, the tide, and non?tide sea level fluctuations. Non?tide sea level fluctuations include both the steric response associated with El Niño–related variability that can persist up to a year or more, and local storm–forced variability (storm surge). The potential for greatest coastal flooding occurs when extremes in waves and still water level occur nearly simultaneously. Wave activity provides the primary driving force for coastal flooding. Wave model significant wave height (Hs) and non?tide sea level projections were generated for a seven global climate model simulations. Comparison of the Hs and nontide projections with wave model hindcast Hs and observed non?tide fluctuations suggest that the characteristics and incidence of extreme Hs and non?tide fluctuations will not increase appreciably over the twenty?first century. Thus, because astronomical tide?forcing will not increase, increases in relative mean sea level will largely determine the potential for increased ocean?driven flooding along the California coast. If relative mean sea level along the California coast reaches global mean sea level rise projections associated with climate change, extreme flooding events expected to occur once in about 100 years under stationary relative mean sea levels will occur annually.

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Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Niño/Southern Oscillation

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | September 21st, 2015

Summary

To predict future coastal hazards, it is important to quantify any links between climate drivers and spatial patterns of coastal change. However, most studies of future c

To predict future coastal hazards, it is important to quantify any links between climate drivers and spatial patterns of coastal change. However, most studies of future coastal vulnerability do not account for the dynamic components of coastal water levels during storms, notably wave-driven processes, storm surges and seasonal water level anomalies, although these components can add metres to water levels during extreme events. Here we synthesize multi-decadal, co-located data assimilated between 1979 and 2012 that describe wave climate, local water levels and coastal change for 48 beaches throughout the Pacific Ocean basin. We find that observed coastal erosion across the Pacific varies most closely with El Niño/Southern Oscillation, with a smaller influence from the Southern Annular Mode and the Pacific North American pattern. In the northern and southern Pacific Ocean, regional wave and water level anomalies are significantly correlated to a suite of climate indices, particularly during boreal winter; conditions in the northeast Pacific Ocean are often opposite to those in the western and southern Pacific. We conclude that, if projections for an increasing frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events over the twenty-first century are confirmed, then populated regions on opposite sides of the Pacific Ocean basin could be alternately exposed to extreme coastal erosion and flooding, independent of sea-level rise.

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Conserving California’s Coastal Habitats: A Legacy and a Future with Sea Level Rise

Nature Conservancy | May 15th, 2018

Summary

The California coast that we know today will not be the coast of the future. Sea level rise and other climate change impacts will have profound effects on o

The California coast that we know today will not be the coast of the future. Sea level rise and other climate change impacts will have profound effects on our coastline and its natural resources. California harbors high numbers of native, rare, and imperiled species in an array of unique coastal habitats. A majority of California’s coastline exists as natural habitat, over one-third of which has been preserved by a legacy of conservation efforts. Yet, this conservation legacy is at risk and we must act now to conserve the unique values of California’s coast—for both people and nature—into the future. To inform current and future adaptation decisions and conservation actions we conducted the first statewide, comprehensive assessment of the vulnerability of California’s coastal habitats, imperiled species, and conservation lands to sea level rise. Coastal habitats exist in narrow bands at the land-sea interface and are therefore extremely susceptible to inundation by sea level rise. However, some habitats may be able to adapt vertically and possibly move inland, assuming local topography and the built environment do not constrain this movement. We assessed the vulnerability of 40 habitats to sea level rise by quantifying the sensitivity and spatial extent of projected exposure of each habitat patch to intertidal and subtidal waters, relative to its ability to move inland in response to rising sea levels.

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Contribution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation to global mean sea level trend

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | October 3rd, 2013

Summary

Understanding and explaining the trend in global mean sea level (GMSL) have important implications for future projections of sea level rise. While measurements from sa

Understanding and explaining the trend in global mean sea level (GMSL) have important implications for future projections of sea level rise. While measurements from satellite altimetry have provided accurate estimates of GMSL, the modern altimetry record has only now reached 20 years in length, making it difficult to assess the contribution of decadal to multi-decadal climate signals to the global trend. Here, we use a sea level reconstruction to study the 20 year trends in sea level since 1950. In particular, we show that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) contributes significantly to the 20 year trends in GMSL. We estimate the PDO contri-bution to the GMSL trend over the past 20 years to beapproximately 0.49 ± 0.25 mm/year and find that removing the PDO contribution reduces the acceleration in GMSL estimated over the past 60 years.

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Delta Levees – Types, Uses, and Policy Options

Delta Vision Blue Ribbon Task Force (Delta Vision) | August 7th, 2008

Summary

This document was developed to support Delta Vision discussions on the role of levees in the Delta’s future. It is to clarify the different types (or design standards)

This document was developed to support Delta Vision discussions on the role of levees in the Delta’s future. It is to clarify the different types (or design standards) of levees that now exist for the Delta and what improvements could be considered. It is especially oriented toward an improved understanding of what types of levees are suitable for protecting various land uses or for other applications. Based on understanding the levee types, policy options are identified for a) selecting levee improvements to be included in the vision of the Delta’s future and b) implementing the improvements selected.

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Delta Levees Investment Strategy: Sea Level Rise Methodology

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | August 21st, 2015

Summary

This memorandum describes the methodology used to account for the impact of potential future sea level rise on the Delta Levees Investment Strategy (DLIS) metrics and how

This memorandum describes the methodology used to account for the impact of potential future sea level rise on the Delta Levees Investment Strategy (DLIS) metrics and how those impacts are incorporated into the DLIS planning tool. A description of the approach used to account for the spatial variation of tide effects in the Delta and Suisun Marsh and prediction uncertainties are also included in this memorandum.

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Ivanpah Valley 6-030
Jacumba Valley 7-047
Johnson Valley - Soggy Lake 7-018.01
Johnson Valley - Upper Johnson Valley 7-018.02
Joshua Tree 7-062
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Kelso Valley 6-031
Lanfair Valley 7-001
Langford Valley - Irwin 6036.02
Langford Valley - Langford Well Lake 6-036.01
Langford Valley 6-036.02
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Lockwood Valley 4-017
Long Valley 6-011
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Los Osos Valley - Warden Creek 3-008.02
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Lower Mojave River Valley 6-040
Lucerne Valley 7-019
Malibu Valley 4-022
Means Valley 7-017
Mesquite Valley 6-029
Middle Amargosa Valley - 6-020
Middle Mojave River Valley 6-041
Mission Valley 9-014
Modoc) 5-004
Morongo Valley 7-020
Morro Valley 3-041
Napa-Sonoma Valley - Napa-Sonoma Lowlands 2-002.03
Needles Valley 7-044
Ocotillo-Clark Valley 7-025
Ogilby Valley 7-035
Ojai Valley 4-002
Orocopia Valley - 7-031
Owens Valley - Fish Slough 6-012.02
Owens Valley 6-012.01
Owl Lake Valley 6-088
Pahrump Valley 6-028
Palo Verde Mesa 7-039
Palo Verde Valley 7-038
Pamo Valley 9-024
Panamint Valley 6-058
Peach Tree Valley 3-032
Petaluma Valley 2-001
Pilot Knob Valley 6-051
Pinto Valley 7-006
Pipes Canyon Fault Valley 7-049
Pittsburgh Plain 2-004
Piute Valley 7-045
Pleasant Valley 4-006
Potrero Valley 9-029
Poway Valley 9-013
Raymond 4-023
Red Pass Valley 6-024
Redding Area - Anderson 5-006.03
Redding Area - Bowman 5-006.01
Redding Area - Enterprise 5-006.04
Redding Area - Millville 5-006.05
Redding Area - South Battle Creek 5-006.06
Rice Valley 7-004
Riggs Valley 6-023
Russell Valley 4-020
Sacramento Valley - Antelope 5-021.54
Sacramento Valley - Bend 5-021.53
Sacramento Valley - Butte 5-021.70
Sacramento Valley - Colusa 5-021.52
Sacramento Valley - Corning 5-021.51
Sacramento Valley - Los Molinos 5-021.56
Sacramento Valley - North American (5-021.64)
Sacramento Valley - North Yuba 5-021.60
Sacramento Valley - Red Bluff 5-021.50
Sacramento Valley - Solano 5-021.66
Sacramento Valley - South American 5-021.65
Sacramento Valley - South Yuba 5-021.61
Sacramento Valley - Sutter 5-021.62
Sacramento Valley - Vina 5-021.57
Sacramento Valley - Wyandotte Creek 5-021.69
Sacramento Valley - Yolo 5021.67
Salinas Valley - 180/400 Foot Aquifer 3-004.01
Salinas Valley - Atascadero Area 3-004.11
Salinas Valley - East Side Aquifer 3-004.02
Salinas Valley - Forebay Aquifer 3-004.04
Salinas Valley - Langley Area 3-004.09
Salinas Valley - Monterey 3-004.10
Salinas Valley - Paso Robles Area 3-004.06
Salinas Valley - Upper Valley Aquifer 3-004.05
Saline Valley 6-017
Salt Wells Valley 6-053
San Antonio Creek Valley 3-014
San Dieguito Creek 9-012
San Elijo Valley 9-023
San Felipe Valley 7-027
San Fernando Valley 4-012
San Gabriel Valley 4-013
San Jacinto 8-005
San Joaquin Valley - Chowchilla 5-022.05
San Joaquin Valley - Cosumnes (5-022.16)
San Joaquin Valley - Delta-Mendota 5-022.07
San Joaquin Valley - East Contra Costa 5-022.19
San Joaquin Valley - Eastern San Joaquin 5-022.01
San Joaquin Valley - Kaweah 5-022.11
San Joaquin Valley - Kern 5-022.14
San Joaquin Valley - Kings 5-022.08
San Joaquin Valley - Madera 5-022.06
San Joaquin Valley - Merced 5-022.04
San Joaquin Valley - Modesto 5-022.02
San Joaquin Valley - Pleasant Valley 5-022.10
San Joaquin Valley - Tracy 5-022.15
San Joaquin Valley - Tulare Lake 5-022.12
San Joaquin Valley - Tule 5-022.13
San Joaquin Valley - Turlock 5-022.03
San Joaquin Valley - Westside 5-022.09
San Joaquin Valley - White Wolf 5-022.18
San Juan Valley 9-001
San Luis Obispo Valley 3-009
San Luis Rey Valley - Lower San Luis Rey Valley 9-007.02
San Luis Rey Valley - Upper San Luis Rey Valley 9-007.01
San Marcos Area 9-032
San Mateo Valley 9-002
San Onofre Valley 9-003
San Pasqual Valley 9-010
Santa Barbara 3-017
Santa Clara River Valley - Fillmore 4-004.05
Santa Clara River Valley - Mound 4-004.03
Santa Clara River Valley - Oxnard 4-004.02
Santa Clara River Valley - Piru 4-004.06
Santa Clara River Valley - Santa Clara River Valley East 4-004.07
Santa Clara River Valley - Santa Paula 4-004.04
Santa Clara Valley - East Bay Plain 2-009.04
Santa Clara Valley - Niles Cone 2-009.01
Santa Clara Valley - San Mateo Plain 2-009.03
Santa Clara Valley - Santa Clara 2-009.02
Santa Cruz Mid-County 3-001
Santa Margarita 3-027
Santa Maria River Valley - Arroyo Grande 3-012.02
Santa Maria River Valley - Santa Maria 3-012.01
Santa Maria River Valley 3-012.02
Santa Maria Valley 9-011
Santa Rosa Valley - Santa Rosa Plain 1-055.01
Santa Ynez River Valley 3-015
Scott River Valley 1-005
Searles Valley 6-052
Seven Oaks Valley 8-008
Shasta Valley 1-004
Sierra Valley 5-012.01
Silver Lake Valley 6-034
Simi Valley 4-009
Soda Lake Valley 6-033
South San Diego River Valley 9-015
Superior Valley 6-049
Temecula Valley 9-005
Terwilliger Valley 7-026
Thousand Oaks Area 4-019
Tule Lake 1-002-01
Twentynine Palms Valley 7-010
Ukiah Valley 1-052
Upper Kingston Valley 6-022
Upper Mojave River Valley 6-042
Upper Ojai Valley 4-001
Upper Santa Ana Valley - Chino 8-002.01
Upper Santa Ana Valley - Cucamonga 8-002.02
Upper Santa Ana Valley - Rialto-Colton 8-002.04
Upper Santa Ana Valley - Riverside-Arlington 8-002.03
Upper Santa Ana Valley - San Bernardino 8-002.06
Upper Santa Ana Valley - San Timoteo 8-002.08
Upper Santa Ana Valley - Temescal 8-002.09
Upper Santa Ana Valley - Yucaipa 8-002.07
Vallecito-Carrizo Valley 7-028
Ventura River Valley - Lower Ventura River 4-003.02
Ventura River Valley - Upper Ventura River 4-003.01
Vidal Valley 7-042
Ward Valley 7-003
Warren Valley 7-012
West Salton Sea
Wingate Valley 6-019
Yuma Valley 7-036

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