Atlantic-Pacific influence on western U.S. hydroclimate and water resources

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | September 11th, 2023

Atmospheric Rivers Impacting Northern California Exhibit a Quasi-Decadal Frequency

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | July 26th, 2021

In Northern California, much of the precipitation and surface water comes from atmospheric rivers–corridors of moisture transport from the tropics. The frequency of atm

In Northern California, much of the precipitation and surface water comes from atmospheric rivers–corridors of moisture transport from the tropics. The frequency of atmospheric rivers is cyclical, with periods of water surplus and deficit in the region that repeat every 10–17 years. While many social and political factors influence water resource distribution, understanding the climate factors that regulate water availability is important for managing water in the future. Using data from observations and modeling experiments, the pronounced wet/dry cycle in this area of the Western United States is mainly attributed to regular fluctuations in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This analysis provides a potential source of predictability for atmospheric river frequency, and thus water availability, years before a winter season.

Atmospheric rivers in 20 year weather and climate simulations: A multi-model, global evaluation

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | June 1st, 2017

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow, elongated, synoptic jets of water vapor that play importantroles in the global water cycle and meteorological/hydrological extremes.

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow, elongated, synoptic jets of water vapor that play importantroles in the global water cycle and meteorological/hydrological extremes. Increasing evidence shows that ARs have signatures and impacts in many regions across different continents. However, global-scalecharacterizations of AR representations in weather and climate models have been very limited. Using a recently developed AR detection algorithm oriented for global applications, the representation of AR activities in multi-decade weather/climate simulations is evaluated. The algorithm is applied to 6-hourly(daily) integrated water vapor transport (IVT) from 22 (2) global weather/climate models that participated inthe Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Atmospheric System Study–Year of Tropical Convection Multimodel Experiment, including four models with ocean-atmosphere coupling and two models with super parameterization. Multiple reanalysis products are used as references to help quantify model errors inthe context of reanalysis uncertainty. Model performance is examined for key aspects of ARs (frequency,intensity, geometry, and seasonality), with the focus on identifying and understanding systematic errors insimulated ARs. The results highlight the range of model performances relative to reanalysis uncertainty inrepresenting the most basic features of ARs. Among the 17 metrics considered, AR frequency, zonal IVT, fractional zonal circumference, fractional total meridional IVT, and three seasonality metrics have consistently large errors across all models. Possible connections between AR simulation qualities and aspects of model configurations are discussed. Despite the lack of a monotonic relationship, the importance of model horizontal resolution to the overall quality of AR simulation is suggested by the evaluation results.

Atmospheric Rivers, Floods and the Water Resources of California

Water (MDPI) | April 5th, 2011

California’s highly variable climate and growing water demands combine to pose both water-supply and flood-hazard challenges to resource managers. Recently important ef

California’s highly variable climate and growing water demands combine to pose both water-supply and flood-hazard challenges to resource managers. Recently important efforts to more fully integrate the management of floods and water resources have begun, with the aim of benefitting both sectors. California is shown here to experience unusually large variations in annual precipitation and streamflow totals relative to the rest of the US, variations which mostly reflect the unusually small average number of wet days per year needed to accumulate most of its annual precipitation totals (ranging from 5 to 15 days in California). Thus whether just a few large storms arrive or fail to arrive in California can be the difference between a banner year and a drought. Furthermore, California receives some of the largest 3-day storm totals in the country, rivaling in this regard the hurricane belt of the southeastern US. California’s largest storms are generally fueled by landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs). The fractions of precipitation and streamflow totals at stations across the US that are associated with ARs are documented here and, in California, contribute 20–50% of the state’s precipitation and streamflow. Prospects for long-lead forecasts of these fractions are presented. From a meteorological perspective, California’s water resources and floods are shown to derive from the same storms to an extent that makes integrated flood and water resources management all the more important.

Balancing Flood Risk and Water Supply in California: Policy Search Integrating Short-Term Forecast Ensembles With Conjunctive Use

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | September 24th, 2018

Short-term weather forecasts have the potential to improve reservoir operations for both flood control and water supply objectives, especially in regions currently relyin

Short-term weather forecasts have the potential to improve reservoir operations for both flood control and water supply objectives, especially in regions currently relying on fixed seasonal flood pools to mitigate risk. The successful development of forecast-based policies should integrate uncertainty from modern forecast products to create unambiguous rules that can be tested on out-of-sample periods. This study investigates the potential for such operating policies to improve water supply efficiency while maintaining flood protection, combining state-of-the-art weather hindcasts with downstream conjunctive use to transfer surplus flood releases to groundwater storage. Because available weather hindcasts are relatively short (10–20 years), we propose a novel statistical framework to develop synthetic forecasts over longer periods of the historical record. Operating rules are trained with a recently developed policy search framework in which decision rules are structured as binary trees. Policies are developed for a range of scenarios with varying forecast skill and conjunctive use capacity, using Folsom Reservoir, California, as a case study. Results suggest that the combination of conjunctive use and short-term weather forecasts can substantially improve both water supply and flood control objectives by allowing storage to remain high until forecasts trigger a release. Further, increased conjunctive use capacity reduces the importance of forecast skill, since surface storage can be moved to groundwater during the flood season without losing water supply. This analysis serves the development of forecast-based operating policies for large, multipurpose reservoirs in California and other regions with similar flood hydroclimatology.

Bulletin 39-A, South Coastal Basin Investigation, Records of Ground Water Levels at Wells for the Year 1932, Seasonal Precipitation Records to and including 1931-32

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | January 2nd, 1933

Bulletin No. 24-60, Coastal Los Angeles County Land and Water Use Survey, 1960

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | April 9th, 1964

Bulletin No. 33, Rainfall Penetration and Consumptive Use of Water in Santa Ana River Valley and Coastal Plain

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | November 1st, 1930

California Winter Precipitation Change under Global Warming in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Ensemble

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | August 23rd, 2013

Projections of possible precipitation change in California under global warming have been subject to considerable uncertainty because California lies between the

Projections of possible precipitation change in California under global warming have been subject to considerable uncertainty because California lies between the region anticipated to undergo increases in precipitation at mid-to-high latitudes and regions of anticipated decrease in the subtropics. Evaluation of the large-scale model experiments for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) suggests a greater degree of agreement on the sign of the winter (December–February) precipitation change than in the previous such intercomparison, indicating a greater portion of California falling within the increased precipitation zone. While the resolution of global models should not be relied on for accurate depiction of topographic rainfall distribution within California, the precipitation changes depend substantially on large- scale shifts in the storm tracks arriving at the coast. Significant precipitation increases in the region arriving at the California coast are associated with an eastward extension of the region of strong Pacific jet stream, which appears to be a robust feature of the large-scale simulated changes. This suggests that effects of this jet extension in steering storm tracks toward the California coast constitute an important factor that should be assessed for impacts on incoming storm properties for high-resolution regional model assessments.

California's Volatile Hydroclimate: Lessons From the Paleoclimate Record

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | November 24th, 2021