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Delta Salinity Management Workshops 2022 Information Sheet

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | March 7th, 2022

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Development of Stage-Frequency Curves in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta for Climate Change and Sea Level Rise

California Energy Commission (CEC) | August 27th, 2018

Summary

Future changes in hydrologic patterns and sea level rise will impact water levels in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta), the hub of California’s water supply sys

Future changes in hydrologic patterns and sea level rise will impact water levels in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta), the hub of California’s water supply system and an important ecosystem and agricultural area. An important tool for flood management is stage frequency curves which indicate how often certain water levels (or stage) occur. The Delta poses inherent complexity in the determination of stage-frequency and requires a number of considerations. One needs to account for river flows coming into the Delta, as well as the effect of tides from the Delta’s connection to the ocean through San Francisco Bay. During storms, Delta water levels are also affected by storm surge from the advancing storm fronts coming from the Pacific Ocean. Under climate change, Delta water levels will also be affected by rising sea levels and expected changes in hydrology, such as shifts in timing and amount of precipitation and runoff and changes in how much of our precipitation falls as rain or snow (referred to as climate change hydrology in this paper). With these taken into consideration, this study lays out the assumption and method used to develop stage-frequency curves in the Delta for three different conditions: current hydrology conditions, current hydrology with sea level rise, and late-century climate change hydrology with sea level rise. In addition, water surface elevation profiles along the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers for various magnitudes of flood events were compared to the top of levee elevations. Both the stage-frequency curves and the water surface elevation profiles comparisons to top of levee elevations provide valuable information to water resources planners and were applied to inform life and flood risk analysis for the Delta in the Central Valley Flood Protection Plan 2017 Update.

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Dimension reduction approach for understanding resource-flow resilience to climate change

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | June 15th, 2024

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Drift of Earth's Pole Confirms Groundwater Depletion as a Significant Contributor to Global Sea Level Rise 1993–2010

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | June 15th, 2023

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Dynamic flood modeling essential to assess the coastal impacts of climate change

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 13th, 2019

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Coastal inundation due to sea level rise (SLR) is projected to displace hundreds of millions of people worldwide over the next century, creating significant eco

Coastal inundation due to sea level rise (SLR) is projected to displace hundreds of millions of people worldwide over the next century, creating significant economic, humanitarian, and national-security challenges. However, the majority of previous efforts to characterize potential coastal impacts of climate change have focused primarily on long-term SLR with a static tide level, and have not comprehensively accounted for dynamic physical drivers such as tidal non-linearity, storms, short-term climate variability, erosion response and consequent flooding responses. Here we present a dynamic modeling approach that estimates climate-driven changes in flood-hazard exposure by integrating the effects of SLR, tides, waves, storms, and coastal change (i.e. beach erosion and cliff retreat). We show that for California, USA, the world’s 5th largest economy, over $150 billion of property equating to more than 6% of the state’s GDP and 600,000 people could be impacted by dynamic flooding by 2100; a three- fold increase in exposed population than if only SLR and a static coastline are considered. The potential for underestimating societal exposure to coastal flooding is greater for smaller SLR scenarios, up to a seven-fold increase in exposed population and economic interests when considering storm conditions in addition to SLR. These results highlight the importance of including climate-change driven dynamic coastal processes and impacts in both short-term hazard mitigation and long-term adaptation planning.

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Effects of Sea‐Level Rise on Ground Water Flow in a Coastal Aquifer System

National Groundwater Association (NGWA) | January 29th, 2007

Summary

The effects of sea‐level rise on the depth to the fresh water/salt water interface were simulated by using a density‐dependent, three‐dimensional numerical ground w

The effects of sea‐level rise on the depth to the fresh water/salt water interface were simulated by using a density‐dependent, three‐dimensional numerical ground water flow model for a simplified hypothetical fresh water lens that is similar to shallow, coastal aquifers found along the Atlantic coast of the United States. Simulations of sea‐level rise of 2.65 mm/year from 1929 to 2050 resulted in an increase in water levels relative to a fixed datum, yet a net decrease in water levels relative to the increased sea‐level position. The net decrease in water levels was much greater near a gaining stream than farther from the stream. The difference in the change in water levels is attributed to the dampening effect of the stream on water level changes in response to sea‐level rise. In response to the decreased water level altitudes relative to local sea level, the depth to the fresh water/salt water interface decreased. This reduction in the thickness of the fresh water lens varied throughout the aquifer and was greatly affected by proximity to a ground water fed stream and whether the stream was tidally influenced. Away from the stream, the thickness of the fresh water lens decreased by about 2% from 1929 to 2050, whereas the fresh water lens thickness decreased by about 22% to 31% for the same period near the stream, depending on whether the stream was tidally influenced. The difference in the change in the fresh water/salt water interface position is controlled by the difference in the net decline in water levels relative to local sea level.

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Estimating the potential economic impacts of climate change on Southern California beaches

Climactic Change (Springer) | November 24th, 2011

Summary

Climate change could substantially alter the width of beaches in Southern California. Climate-driven sea level rise will have at least two important impacts on beaches: (

Climate change could substantially alter the width of beaches in Southern California. Climate-driven sea level rise will have at least two important impacts on beaches: (1) higher sea level will cause all beaches to become more narrow, all things being held constant, and (2) sea level rise may affect patterns of beach erosion and accretion when severe storms combine with higher high tides. To understand the potential economic impacts of these two outcomes, this study examined the physical and economic effects of permanent beach loss caused by inundation due to sea level rise of one meter and of erosion and accretion caused by a single, extremely stormy year (using a model of beach change based on the wave climate conditions of the El Niño year of 1982/1983.) We use a random utility model of beach attendance in Southern California that estimates the impacts of changes on beach width for different types of beach user visiting public beaches in Los Angeles and Orange Counties. The model allows beachgoers to have different preferences for beach width change depending on beach size. We find that the effect of climate-driven beach change differs for users that participate in bike path activities, sand-based activities, and water-based activities. We simulate the effects of climate-related beach loss on attendance patterns at 51 public beaches, beach-related expenditures at those beaches, and the non-market (consumer surplus) value of beach going to those beaches. We estimate that increasing sea level will cause an overall reduction of economic value in beach going, with some beaches experiencing increasing attendance and beach-related earnings while attendance and earnings at other beaches would be lower. We also estimate that the potential annual economic impacts from a single stormy year may be as large as those caused by permanent inundation that would result from a rise in sea level of one meter. The economic impacts of both permanent inundation and storm-related erosion are distributed unevenly across the region. To put the economic impacts of these changes in beach width in perspective, the paper provides simple estimates of the cost of mitigating beach loss by nourishing beaches with sand.

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