Changes in Evapotranspiration of Agricultural Crops in Kern County during the 2014-2015 Drought Years

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | September 5th, 2017

The 2012-2015 drought in California has major impacts for agricultural water users in Kern County. Farmers shifted crop planting patterns and irrigation scheduling to min

The 2012-2015 drought in California has major impacts for agricultural water users in Kern County. Farmers shifted crop planting patterns and irrigation scheduling to minimize profit loss with water shortage. This report models the changes in crop evapotranspiration from 2011 to 2014 and 2015 using the remote-sensing-based METRIC model developed by the University of Idaho. Results show that rather than universal losses of acreage and productivity, farmers reduced acreage on annual crops while increasing acreage on low-water-use new orchards. Productivity increased on the annual crops that remained in production, perhaps due to fallowing less productive land. High-value crops such as citrus and grapes saw increases in both acreage and productivity. Remote-sensing-based evapotranspiration mapping provides an important tool to policymakers by providing field-based estimates of a wide range of farmer responses to drought including planting, fallowing, under-irrigation, and, if combined with productivity models, changes in revenue. 

Changes in water consumption linked to heavy news media coverage of extreme climatic events

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | October 25th, 2017

Public awareness of water- and drought-related issues is an important yet relatively unexplored component of water use behavior. To examine this relationship, w

Public awareness of water- and drought-related issues is an important yet relatively unexplored component of water use behavior. To examine this relationship, we first quantified news media coverage of drought in California from 2005 to 2015, a period with two distinct droughts; the later drought received unprecedentedly high media coverage, whereas the earlier drought did not, as the United States was experiencing an economic downturn coinciding with a historic presidential election. Comparing this coverage to Google search frequency confirmed that public attention followed news media trends. We then modeled single-family residential water consumption in 20 service areas in the San Francisco Bay Area during the same period using geospatially explicit data and including news media coverage as a covariate. Model outputs revealed the factors affecting water use for populations of varying demographics. Importantly, the models estimated that an increase of 100 drought-related articles in a bimonthly period was associated with an 11 to 18% reduction in water use. Then, we evaluated high-resolution water consumption data from smart meters, known as advanced metering infrastructure, in one of the previously modeled service areas to evaluate breakpoints in water use trends. Results demonstrated that whereas nonresidential commercial irrigation customers responded to changes in climate, single-family residential customers decreased water use at the fastest rate following heavy drought-related news media coverage. These results highlight the need for water resource planners and decision makers to further consider the importance of effective, internally and externally driven, public awareness and education in water demand behavior and management.

Climate change and California drought in the 21st century

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | March 31st, 2015

Climate science has advanced over decades from an initial focus on the development and use of numerical models of Earth’s climate and compilation of rich netw

Climate science has advanced over decades from an initial focus on the development and use of numerical models of Earth’s climate and compilation of rich networks of obser- vational data, to now being in a position to“detect” and “attribute” specific impacts and events to anthropogenic climate change. Recent analyses have thus established the“fingerprint” of anthropogenic climate change in an increasingly diverse array of meteorological and hydrological phenomena around the world, from heat waves to coastal damages during extreme tides and storms, flooding from more intense precipitation events, and severe drought. In a new study published in PNAS, Diffenbaugh et al. now add weight to the accumulating evidence that anthropogenic climatic changes are already influencing the frequency, magnitude, and duration of drought in California. The authors show that the increasing co-occurrence of dry years with warm years raises the risk of drought despite limited evidence of a trend in precipitation itself, highlighting the critical role of elevated temperatures in altering water availability and increasing overall drought intensity and impact.

Climate change and the aridification of North America

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | May 19th, 2020

Discussions of droughts and their impacts often center on the lack of precipitation, just as assessments of hydrologic impacts under a changing climate most ofte

Discussions of droughts and their impacts often center on the lack of precipitation, just as assessments of hydrologic impacts under a changing climate most often focus on how average precipitation in a given locale is likely to change in the future. Within climate science, however, focus has begun to include the growing role warming temperatures are playing as a potent driver of greater aridity: hotter climate extremes; drier soil conditions; more severe drought; and the impacts of hydrologic stress on rivers, forests, agriculture, and other systems. This shift in the hydrologic paradigm is most clear in the American Southwest, where declining flows in the region’s two most important rivers, the Colorado and Rio Grande, have been attributed in part to increasing temperatures caused by human activities, most notably the burning of fossil fuels. Warmer summers are also likely to reduce flows in the Columbia River, as well as in rivers along the Sierra Nevada in California. Now, an important study [Increased drought severity tracks warming in the United States’ largest river basin, J.T. Martin et al] documents how warming is also causing flow declines in the northern Rocky Mountains and in the largest river basin in the United States, the Missouri. This work further highlights the mechanisms behind the temperature-driven river flow declines and places more focus on how anthropogenic climate warming is progressively increasing the risk of hot drought and more arid conditions across an expanding swath of the United States.

Climate Change and Water Supply Security: Reconfiguring Groundwater Management to Reduce Drought Vulnerability

California Energy Commission (CEC) | July 31st, 2012

Periodic droughts, projected to become more frequent and severe with climate change, present a significant planning challenge for California’s water agencies. This r

Periodic droughts, projected to become more frequent and severe with climate change, present a significant planning challenge for California’s water agencies. This research examined approaches to reducing drought vulnerability, focusing on five water agencies on California’s north and central coast that rely on local and regional sources of water. Curtailing water use is the principal response to drought. In contrast, this project highlights an important but underutilized proactive adaptation to improve water supply security during drought: the development of locally based groundwater drought reserves. While this approach represents an obvious solution in principle, it is uncommon to find it in practice, and this research provides insight into (1) motivating factors, (2) legal barriers and opportunities, (3) tools, and (4) policy options to support increased drought resilience and the development of drought reserves.

Climate-driven disturbances amplify forest drought sensitivity

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | June 7th, 2024

Climate, Drought, and Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the Fourth California Climate Assessment

California Energy Commission (CEC) | August 27th, 2018

Daily temperature and precipitation over California at a resolution of 1/16° (about 6 km, or 3.7 miles) were generated to support climate change impact studies for the

Daily temperature and precipitation over California at a resolution of 1/16° (about 6 km, or 3.7 miles) were generated to support climate change impact studies for the energy system and other sectors featured in the California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment. The data, derived from 32 coarse-resolution (~ 100 km) global climate models (GCMs), were bias corrected and downscaled using the Localized Constructed Analogues (LOCA) statistical method. The data cover 1950-2005 for the historical period and 2006-2100 for two future climate projections using medium and high greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions scenarios. Statewide, temperature is projected to increase 2-4 °C (medium emissions scenario) to 4-7 °C (high emissions scenario) by the end of this century. Precipitation shows fewer wet days, wetter winters, drier springs and autumns, and an increase in dry years as well as maximum precipitation in a single day. Ten GCMs that closely simulate California’s climate are identified for studies where all 32 GCMs cannot be used. Additional variables were downscaled for these 10, including wind speed, specific and relative humidity, and surface solar radiation. Four models that span the temperature and precipitation changes from the 10 are identified for studies that cannot accommodate the 10. Wind speed shows small decreases, while relative humidity changes are more complicated, with coastal increases but decreases inland. Surface solar radiation shows small Southern California increases in spring. The downscaled fields were applied to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model to develop snow cover, soil moisture, runoff, water loss from plants, surface heat fluxes, and other parameters. Moisture deficit is projected to increase over much of the state, particularly Northern California and the Sierra Nevada, while top level soil moisture is projected to decrease, particularly in Southern California. Most streamflows shift to earlier in the year, with the bigger shifts experienced in basins which currently have substantial contributions from snowmelt. Two versions of a 20-year dry spell were identified from one of the GCM simulations to investigate future drought: the original episode from 2051-2070, and one shifted earlier in the century with temperatures consistent with 2023-2042. For both, we provide downscaled temperatures and precipitation along with VIC hydrological output. Sea level rise (SLR) projections for California were generated using a probabilistic approach employing estimates of the components that contribute to global and regional SLR, including new science on the possibility of increased contribution from Antarctica. Hourly projections of sea level at selected coastal locations were generated out to 2100 that include tides, regional and local weather influences, and short period Pacific climate fluctuations along with the aforementioned sea level rise scenarios. The climate scenario and SLR data are available online from cal-adapt.org.

Colorado River Accounting and Water Use Report - Arizona, California, and Nevada, Interior Region 8: Lower Colorado Basin

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | May 13th, 2022

Colorado River Basin August 2022 24-Month Study

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | August 16th, 2022

Colorado River Drought Contingency Plan Authorization

United States Congress | April 16th, 2019

Authorized Drought Contingency Plans (DCPs) for the Upper and Lower Colorado River Basins, which required reduced Lower Basin deliveries beyond previous curtailment plans

Authorized Drought Contingency Plans (DCPs) for the Upper and Lower Colorado River Basins, which required reduced Lower Basin deliveries beyond previous curtailment plans at specified Lake Mead storage levels, committed Reclamation to additional water conservation efforts, and put in place plans to coordinate Upper Basin operations to enhance Lake Powell storage levels and prevent the loss of hydropower generation.