California Energy Commission (CEC) | August 31st, 2018
Summary
Part A: Rising sea levels pose a threat to California’s energy infrastructure and the coastal communities that it serves. To better understand this threat, this
Part A: Rising sea levels pose a threat to California’s energy infrastructure and the coastal communities that it serves. To better understand this threat, this study analyzed the exposure of San Diego Gas & Electric Company (SDG&E) electricity assets in San Diego County to climate change- driven coastal wave flooding, tidal inundation, and coastal erosion. The study found that the greatest potential direct impacts are damage to four substations in the Mission Bay and San Diego Bay areas. By modeling the potential costs to customers from unserved energy due to service disruptions driven by exposed substations, this study found economic impacts could— under an extreme sea level rise scenario in the late 21st century compounded by a 100 year storm-- range from $1.2 billion to $25 billion, assuming no adaptation actions are taken. Nearby communities could also experience indirect impacts if critical customers served by the substations—such as sewage pumping stations, hospitals, airports, and ports—are affected by outages. For other asset types, potential direct impacts are expected in the form of increased maintenance and repair costs.
The research team identified a range of potential adaptation measures to build resilience to potential impacts. The application of flexible adaptation pathways emerged through the study as the best approach to improve implementation of these measures in the face of future uncertainty. Rather than selecting adaptation measures based only on what is known today, flexible adaptation pathways help establish information that that should be tracked, termed signposts, to help navigate uncertainty, set thresholds that trigger adaptation actions, and determine if an adaptation plan is meeting its objectives. Using these pathways, four initial climate adaptation actions were identified for SDG&E: 1) enhance coastal storm prediction and response, 2) identify signposts and thresholds that indicate when the need for an adaptation decision is approaching, 3) conduct consultations with regional stakeholders to identify opportunities to improve community-wide resilience, and 4) improve and fine-tune cost-benefit analysis methods to increase accuracy and confidence in cost-benefit estimates that incorporate climate change.
Click here for Part B of the report, Potential Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Actions for Gas Assets in the San Diego Gas and Electric Company Service Area, CEC, 2018