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High-resolution mapping of global surface water and its long-term changes

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 7th, 2016

Summary

The location and persistence of surface water (inland and coastal) is both affected by climate and human activity and affects climate, biological diversity and hu

The location and persistence of surface water (inland and coastal) is both affected by climate and human activity and affects climate, biological diversity and human wellbeing. Global data sets documenting surface water location and seasonality have been produced from inventories and national descriptions, statistical extrapolation of regional data and satellite imagery, but measuring long-term changes at high resolution remains a challenge. Here, using three million Landsat satellite images, we quantify changes in global surface water over the past 32 years at 30-metre resolution. We record the months and years when water was present, where occurrence changed and what form changes took in terms of seasonality and persistence. Between 1984 and 2015 permanent surface water has disappeared from an area of almost 90,000 square kilometres, roughly equivalent to that of Lake Superior, though new permanent bodies of surface water covering 184,000 square kilometres have formed elsewhere. All continental regions show a net increase in permanent water, except Oceania, which has a fractional (one per cent) net loss. Much of the increase is from reservoir filling, although climate change is also implicated. Loss is more geographically concentrated than gain. Over 70 per cent of global net permanent water loss occurred in the Middle East and Central Asia, linked to drought and human actions including river diversion or damming and unregulated withdrawal. Losses in Australia17 and the USA18 linked to long-term droughts are also evident. This globally consistent, validated data set shows that impacts of climate change and climate oscillations on surface water occurrence can be measured and that evidence can be gathered to show how surface water is altered by human activities. We anticipate that this freely available data will improve the modelling of surface forcing, provide evidence of state and change in wetland ecotones (the transition areas between biomes), and inform water-management decision-making.

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Historical and future relations between large storms and droughts in California

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | July 14th, 2016

Summary

California precipitation varies more dramatically from year to year than elsewhere in the conterminous United States. This paper analyzes the extent to which contribution

California precipitation varies more dramatically from year to year than elsewhere in the conterminous United States. This paper analyzes the extent to which contributions of the wettest days to overall precipitation dictate the state’s precipitation seasonality and frequent multiyear periods of drought (as precipitation deficit) and plenty is analyzed, historically and in projections of future climates. The wettest 5% of wet days in California contribute about a third of precipitation but about two-thirds of the variance of water-year precipitation. Year-to-year fluctuations in precipitation strongly reflect year-to-year fluctuations of contributions from the largest storms, with the large-storm contributions explaining about twice as much precipitation fluctuation as do contributions from all remaining storms combined. This extreme dominance of large storms is largely unique to California within the United States. In climate-change projections, eight of ten climate models considered here yield increases in precipitation from the largest storms, and when the increases are large, total precipitation follows suit. All of the models project declines in contributions from the smaller storms and models projecting total-precipitation declines reflect this decline. Projected changes in variance of water-year precipitation reflect changes in variance of large-storm contributions. The disproportionately large overall contributions from California’s largest storms, and their outsized year-to-year variability, ensure that the state’s largest storms dictate the state’s regimes of wet and dry spells, historically and in climate-change projections.

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Hourly storm characteristics along the U.S. West Coast: Role of atmospheric rivers in extreme precipitation

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | June 21st, 2017

Summary

Gridded hourly precipitation observations over the conterminous U.S., from 1948 to 2002, are analyzed to determine climatological characteristics of storm precipitation t

Gridded hourly precipitation observations over the conterminous U.S., from 1948 to 2002, are analyzed to determine climatological characteristics of storm precipitation totals. Despite generally lower hourly intensities, precipitation totals along the U.S. West Coast (USWC) are comparable to those in southeast U.S. (SEUS). Storm durations, more so than hourly intensities, strongly modulate precipitation-total variability over the USWC, where the correlation coefficients between storm durations and storm totals range from 0.7 to 0.9. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) contribute 30–50% of annual precipitation on the USWC and make such large contributions to extreme storms that 60–100% of the most extreme storms, i.e., storms with precipitation-total return intervals longer than 2 years, are associated with ARs. These extreme storm totals are more strongly tied to storm durations than to storm hourly or average intensities, emphasizing the importance of AR persistence to extreme storms on the USWC.

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How Much Snow?

Scientific American | March 1st, 1939

Summary

Last winter, at 682 different locations in the Rockies and high Sierras, more than 30,000 exact measurements of snow depth and water content were taken, in order to e

Last winter, at 682 different locations in the Rockies and high Sierras, more than 30,000 exact measurements of snow depth and water content were taken, in order to estimate how much water the mountain snowfields would supply in the run-off during summer months. To make this survey cost more than $100,000. On it was predicated the expenditure, and saving, of millions. While the science of surveying snow is still in its infancy, its extent and importance are increasing rapidly. Ridiculed at first, in the last few years it has taken on world-wide aspects. To grasp its significance in our western states, picture a series of snow-covered mountain ranges that by their streams make life possible in dry intervening valleys. Abundant snow means abundant water. Abundant water means power, and cheap electricity. More important still, it means abundant crops. Dearth of snowfall in the mountains means dry river beds in August, machinery standing idle, thirsty cattle, and dying plants.

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Hydroclimate Report Water Year 2018

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | March 31st, 2020

Summary

Water year (WY) 2018 whipsawed from dry to wet and added high heat for the summer. The WY ended with 82 percent of average precipitation in the Northern Sierra and 20 per

Water year (WY) 2018 whipsawed from dry to wet and added high heat for the summer. The WY ended with 82 percent of average precipitation in the Northern Sierra and 20 percent below average April-July streamflow in the Sacramento River and 19 percent below average for the San Joaquin River. Peak statewide snowpack was only 60 percent of average. While precipitation and stream flow were below average, the big story of the 2018 WY were record temperatures that lead to several unprecedented and deadly wildfires in the state.

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Hydroclimate Report Water Year 2019

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | June 30th, 2020

Summary

Water year (WY) 2019 continued to demonstrate effects of climate change with greater variability and more extremes. Hydroclimate extremes presented themselves with atmosp

Water year (WY) 2019 continued to demonstrate effects of climate change with greater variability and more extremes. Hydroclimate extremes presented themselves with atmospheric rivers causing both flooding and heavy snowpack. Before the wet winter and spring months, California experienced a very dry fall in where the devastating Camp Fire started on November 8, 2018 in Butte County. Fall transitioned to into a wet winter with 64 percent of the WY total for the DWR Northern 8-station index falling in the three months of January, February and March. Temperatures went from extreme cold in February to hot in August as the year progressed from winter to summer.

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Hydroclimate Report Water Year 2020

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | August 31st, 2021

Summary

Water Year (WY) 2020 continued to demonstrate the climate change narrative of greater variability and more extremes. In both precipitation and temperature, there were ne

Water Year (WY) 2020 continued to demonstrate the climate change narrative of greater variability and more extremes. In both precipitation and temperature, there were new extremes with a very dry February and very hot end to the water year. Late fall precipitation onset continued with the first significant storm of the year arriving in late November. The WY ended with 67 percent of average precipitation statewide and 62 percent of average in the Northern Sierra. For runoff, the Sacramento Basin had 66 percent of average April-July streamflow while the San Joaquin Basin had 58 percent of average. Peak statewide snowpack was 62 percent of average reaching that point in early April with a late season storm providing some offset to the winter’s dryness. February was one of the big stories of WY 2020 with record low precipitation. In a year of extremes, August and September also contributed record warmth for the month including a 130-degree Fahrenheit reading at Death Valley on August 16, 2020. This observation, if verified by the World Meteorological Organization, would be one of the hottest daily temperature maximums recorded on Earth. Several cities set new records for days above 90 degrees as well.

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Hydroclimate Report Water Year 2021

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | December 31st, 2022

Summary

Water year (WY) 2021 added to the climate change narrative with extreme dryness leading to record setting drought conditions. In both precipitation and temperature, there

Water year (WY) 2021 added to the climate change narrative with extreme dryness leading to record setting drought conditions. In both precipitation and temperature, there were new extremes with a record dry and warm spring being most notable. Late fall onset occurred again this year arriving in late November starting the seasonal snowpack on very dry soils. The WY ended with 48 percent of average precipitation statewide making it the second driest year in 126 years of record. It was also second warmest for statewide average temperature. For two-year totals, WY 2021 set a record, recording less precipitation than WY 1977. There was only one significant storm in the WY in late January which included low elevation snow and very strong damaging winds. The April 1 statewide snowpack registered 62% of average. Peak snowpack at 64% of average occurred the week before April 1. Runoff from the snowpack was far below expectations due to the dry antecedent conditions and record dry and warm spring. The lack of runoff resulted in the need for emergency drought response measures.

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Hydroclimatic Extremes as Challenges for the Water Management Community: Lessons from Oroville Dam and Hurricane Harvey

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | December 31st, 2018

Summary

Record-breaking extreme storms were a hallmark of 2017 in the United States. An extremely wet winter on the West Coast and brutally damaging hurricane season in

Record-breaking extreme storms were a hallmark of 2017 in the United States. An extremely wet winter on the West Coast and brutally damaging hurricane season in the U.S. Southeast and the Caribbean challenged communities and power-, water- and flood-management systems in ways that raised climate change concerns. Among the most severe were two periods of heavy precipitation and high runoff that exposed dangerous weaknesses in water management infrastructure and land use practices in California and Texas. In California, a record-breaking string of atmospheric river landfalls and remarkably wet winter conditions came close to causing a catastrophic failure of the emergency spillway at Oroville Dam (France et al. 2018; Abbott 2018; White et al. 2019) and less publicized concerns elsewhere (Holland et al. 2018; CNRFC 2017). In Texas, near record-doubling rainfall accumulations from Hurricane Harvey led to massive flooding (Blake and Zelinsky 2018) and dam safety challenges in Houston (Wax-Thibodeaux et al. 2017). We use these events as examples to ground the concept that attribution studies, with careful management-focused framing, can help water management better navigate such unprecedented extremes. *Chapter from the American Meteorological Society's Explaining Extreme Events of 2017 from a Climate Perspective.

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Hydrological Intensification Will Increase the Complexity of Water Resource Management

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | March 9th, 2022

Summary

Climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle, resulting in an increase in floods and droughts. These changes increase the complexity of water resource management t

Climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle, resulting in an increase in floods and droughts. These changes increase the complexity of water resource management that must balance between releasing water to reduce flood risk and storing water for long periods without precipitation. Using updated climate model projections, we show that the amount of precipitation during events will become larger combined with longer dry periods where the daily evaporative demand exceeds precipitation for much of the Earth's surface. Additionally, for the late 21st century, a large portion of the years will be hydrologically intense in major river basins, resulting in conditions that deviate from those for which infrastructure and management policies were developed.

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